040
FXUS63 KMQT 251949
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MEMORIAL DAY (~25% CHANCE).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUT SOUTHEAST MOVED A WEAK WAVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK TROUGH IS NOTED STRETCHING
INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS SUPPORTED LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING,
WHICH LARGELY DIMINISHED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER
REMAINS OVER THE EAST PER GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE SAME IMAGERY
ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE WEST HALF AND
THE RESULTANT CLEARING, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED
INLAND FROM THE BOUNDARY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL, BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF ~20 DEGREES
ARE ALSO NOTED, WHICH SUGGESTS MUCH OF THESE RETURNS LIKELY AREN'T
REACHING THE SURFACE. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, THESE SPRINKLES
OR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE WE WARM FROM THE
CURRENT MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY LAKE SUPERIOR,
EXPECTING ONLY WARMING INTO THE 50S GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
EVENING, SKIES SHOULD TREND TOWARD CLEARING AS HEATING WANES AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL PROGRESS INTO A
WEAK AND BROAD CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW EARLY THIS COMING WEEK WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH EXTENDS RIDGING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEGATIVE TILTING WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
MID-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BEGIN PHASING WITH A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING
DOWNSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS/CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE PRESSING INTO
THE REGION MONDAY WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW'S CIRCULATION MAY
SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR WEST HALF, PERHAPS
AIDED BY LAKE BREEZES. MODEL SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT AN INVERTED V
FEATURE, SUGGESTING QPF WOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN COMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PHASING'S
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA
DELAYS PRECIP ONSET WITH THE SYSTEM'S INVERTED TROUGH. AFTERWARDS,
THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH ONTARIO MAY PULL A COLD FRONT AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY, BUT
THERE'S NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
AS HOW FAR SOUTHWESTWARD PRECIP WILL REACH. ANOTHER WAVE MAY
ALSO FOLLOW ON SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS EVEN LOWER.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
COMING WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD NEAR 60F HIGHS BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND 60S
TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A WARMING TREND
MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD 70S INTERIOR AND 60S BY LAKE SUPERIOR
MOST DAYS, PERHAPS A RETURN TO THE 80S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY
LATE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 40F BY THE
WATER. PATCHY FROST CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, RESULTING IN LESS
COVERAGE OF FROST POTENTIAL. GIVEN THIS, OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COMING WEEK, WIDESPREAD 40S ARE
MOSTLY EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES IN THIS
PERIOD. CAN'T RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUD DECK AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND NEAR 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KSAW, BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON; THE EXCEPTION BEING A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME IN THE
WESTERN WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY A WIND SHIFT TO ALL NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WILL
OCCUR. AS THAT LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR TO WESTERLY. AN AXIS OF
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH MAY (40-50% CHANCE)
SET UP FRIDAY AND CREATE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP/APX
LONG TERM...JTP/APX
AVIATION...JTP/APX
MARINE...JTP/APX
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