318
FXUS63 KMQT 261132
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON (~25%
CHANCE).
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE INTERIOR WEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (~25% CHANCE). WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY (20-50% CHANCE).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND THE INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES IS YIELDING ANOTHER CALM AND COOL NIGHT AS TEMPS
CURRENTLY RANGE THE 30S TO MID 40S. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE 30S TO LOW 40S, SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY BRINGS INCREASING DIURNAL CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED -SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE W COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIP. THAT
SAID, DRY LOW LEVELS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR AND COULD
PREVENT ANYTHING BUT SPRINKLES REACHING THE SFC...REFLECTED BY THE
NBM PROBABILITIES OF 0.01" ONLY AROUND 10% IN THE INTERIOR W. THE
5/26 0Z HREF, HOWEVER, DOES HAVE WIDESPREAD 15-30% PROBABILITIES FOR
AT LEAST 0.01" OVER THE INTERIOR W AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL UP. THE
HREF ALSO HAS POCKETS OF 15-30% PROBABILITIES FOR 0.05" IN THE W.
SHOULD THE DRIER SOLUTION PAN OUT, RH DOWN NEAR 30% IS EXPECTED AS
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S, WARMEST IN THE INTERIOR.
LAKE BREEZES SHOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPS BY THE LAKESHORES AND MAY
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR -SHRA NEAR LAKE MI. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD BELOW 15 MPH, AND WITH THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP,
KEEP FIRE WX CONCERNS AT BAY.
ANY -SHRA THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP END THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL
HEATING CEASES. CLOUD COVER MOSTLY SCATTERS OUT AND TEMPS SETTLE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. TUE BRINGS SIMILAR TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 70S WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCES ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR W IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES NOTED IN BOTH THE NBM/HREF COMPARED TO
TODAY'S POTENTIAL PRECIP. SIMILAR RH AND WIND SPEEDS TO TODAY KEEP
FIRE WX CONCERNS AT BAY ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL PROGRESS INTO A
WEAK AND BROAD CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW EARLY THIS COMING WEEK WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH EXTENDS RIDGING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AS TIME PROGRESSES, THE CIRCULATION ALOFT WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEGATIVE TILTING WILL RESULT IN A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
MID-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO BEGIN PHASING WITH A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ONTARIO ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING
DOWNSTREAM. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDING UP THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS/CANADA FOR THE WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR UPPER MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE PRESSING INTO
THE REGION MONDAY WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW'S CIRCULATION MAY
SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR WEST HALF, PERHAPS
AIDED BY LAKE BREEZES. MODEL SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT AN INVERTED V
FEATURE, SUGGESTING QPF WOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN COMES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE PHASING'S
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA
DELAYS PRECIP ONSET WITH THE SYSTEM'S INVERTED TROUGH. AFTERWARDS,
THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH ONTARIO MAY PULL A COLD FRONT AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY, BUT
THERE'S NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
AS HOW FAR SOUTHWESTWARD PRECIP WILL REACH. ANOTHER WAVE MAY
ALSO FOLLOW ON SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS EVEN LOWER.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
COMING WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD NEAR 60F HIGHS BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND 60S
TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A WARMING TREND
MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD 70S INTERIOR AND 60S BY LAKE SUPERIOR
MOST DAYS, PERHAPS A RETURN TO THE 80S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY
LATE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 40F BY THE
WATER. PATCHY FROST CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, RESULTING IN LESS
COVERAGE OF FROST POTENTIAL. GIVEN THIS, OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COMING WEEK, WIDESPREAD 40S ARE
MOSTLY EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. A LAKE BREEZE WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK WIND CHANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES; A
RETURN TO NEAR CALM WINDS IS FCST FOR TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON; THE EXCEPTION BEING A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME IN THE
WESTERN WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY A WIND SHIFT TO ALL NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WILL
OCCUR. AS THAT LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR TO WESTERLY. AN AXIS OF
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH MAY (40-50% CHANCE)
SET UP FRIDAY AND CREATE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...JABLONSKI
MARINE...NLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page