508
FXUS63 KMQT 262325
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON (~25% CHANCE).
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE INTERIOR WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(~25% CHANCE). WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY (20-50% CHANCE).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
RIDGING OVER THE REGION PROVIDED THE CLEAR SKIES NEEDED TO QUICKLY
WARM INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING. BY NOON EDT, MANY SITES WERE ALREADY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY KICKED OFF
EFFECTIVE MIXING, WITH RH VALUES RESPONDING BY DIPPING INTO THE 30S
IN SOME LOCATIONS AND A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE
WEST. LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW HAS CONTINUED THE MORNING'S LIGHT WINDS
AND THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD ENABLE LAKE BREEZES TO PUSH INLAND.
THESE, COUPLED WITH AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX AND CONTINUED MIXING, MAY
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED DRYING, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 30S OR HIGH
20S FOR RH MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO REACH
THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AWAY INTERIOR AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F BY LAKE
SUPERIOR.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ERODES THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION WHILE FURTHER
UPSTREAM, A FEW WAVES REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BY TUESDAY, THIS TROUGHING CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW, WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SLOWLY PRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY, GRADUALLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND ENABLING A LARGER SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, THEN LAKE HURON/LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PORTRAY SOMEWHAT POOR SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SURFACE FEATURE, WHICH FACTORS INTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND IT'S ASSOCIATED
FORCING THOUGH, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS MAY WORK
AGAINST QPF GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH. AHEAD OF THIS, AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST HALF TUESDAY. COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, WHICH MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION AND THEN WORKS TO REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES, THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THE DRY AIR. WHILE DAYTIME MIXING UPWARDS OF 7 OR 8K FEET
TUESDAY WILL HELP BRING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30% OR INTO THE 20S, WEAK
WINDS SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BEGINNING THURSDAY
THOUGH, PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW DAYTIME MIXING WILL
WORK FOR RH, BUT IF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE TO BELIEVED (SUCH AS THE
GFS) AND THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA HAS A GREATER INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN WHAT THE MORE MOIST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
(E.G. EC), ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S, WINDS POTENTIALLY 15-25MPH AND RH VALUES IN THE 20S.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WIDESPREAD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S IN UPPER MICHIGAN'S INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED. NBM MEAN
ALREADY BRINGS INTERIOR WEST RH DOWN TO NEAR 30%, THE LOW 20S
SATURDAY WITH MID 30S EAST, AND MID 20S SUNDAY. THIS MATCHES THE
LREF PROBABILISTIC SIGNALS AS WELL. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY. SHOULD THESE PAN OUT TOGETHER,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A WEAK WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THOUGH, MAY TAMPER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH NO WIND IMPACTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY THIS EVENING TO MATCH THE WESTERN WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WILL OCCUR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR TO WESTERLY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE KEEWENAW THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PREVAIL INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...NLY
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