149
FXUS63 KMQT 271723
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTH
AND EAST (20% CHANCE).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
A TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH EXTENDS UP TO HUDSON BAY. THIS
IS KEEPING US DRY RIGHT NOW WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER IA IS
YIELDING SOME -SHRA WELL TO THE SW; SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE OVER THE UP, BUT PRECIP HOLDS OFF FOR THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S
THROUGH AROUND 8-10AM EDT.
THE COLLECTION OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WITHIN A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE N PLAINS THIS MORNING DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW TODAY WHICH
SPINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH WED. A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THIS
LOW OVER THE UP ALONGSIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY (~50-150J/KG SBCAPE)
FROM DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT SOME SCT SHOWERS OVER THE W THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND
AN EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS BY THE LAKESHORES
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING, RHS DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER
20%S, BUT WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH LIMITING
FIRE WX CONCERNS. THE UP RETURNS DRY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH A WEAK SFC LOW LIFTING NE TOWARD THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY ASCENT WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN
OUTSIDE THE CWA, HOWEVER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT JUST
YET. IF A DRIER SOLUTION IS FAVORED, MIXING AGAIN COULD BRING RH
DOWN NEAR 30% WITH STRONGER WINDS. OTHERWISE, TEMPS TONIGHT SETTLE
INTO THE 40S, WARMING UP AGAIN INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S SAVE FOR SOME
UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ERODES THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION WHILE FURTHER
UPSTREAM, A FEW WAVES REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BY TUESDAY, THIS TROUGHING CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW, WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SLOWLY PRESSES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY, GRADUALLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AND ENABLING A LARGER SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, THEN LAKE HURON/LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PORTRAY SOMEWHAT POOR SPATIAL
AND TEMPORAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SURFACE FEATURE, WHICH FACTORS INTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND IT'S ASSOCIATED
FORCING THOUGH, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES BEING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS MAY WORK
AGAINST QPF GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH. AHEAD OF THIS, AFTERNOON
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEST HALF TUESDAY. COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, WHICH MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN. THE SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION AND THEN WORKS TO REINFORCE BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES, THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THE DRY AIR. WHILE DAYTIME MIXING UPWARDS OF 7 OR 8K FEET
TUESDAY WILL HELP BRING RH VALUES TO NEAR 30% OR INTO THE 20S, WEAK
WINDS SHOULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BEGINNING THURSDAY
THOUGH, PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW DAYTIME MIXING WILL
WORK FOR RH, BUT IF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE TO BELIEVED (SUCH AS THE
GFS) AND THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA HAS A GREATER INFLUENCE ON PRECIP
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN WHAT THE MORE MOIST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
(E.G. EC), ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S, WINDS POTENTIALLY 15-25MPH AND RH VALUES IN THE 20S.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WIDESPREAD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S IN UPPER MICHIGAN'S INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED. NBM MEAN
ALREADY BRINGS INTERIOR WEST RH DOWN TO NEAR 30%, THE LOW 20S
SATURDAY WITH MID 30S EAST, AND MID 20S SUNDAY. THIS MATCHES THE
LREF PROBABILISTIC SIGNALS AS WELL. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY. SHOULD THESE PAN OUT TOGETHER,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WOULD BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A WEAK WAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THOUGH, MAY TAMPER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA. SOME SCT SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED AT IWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS TURN CALM AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY THIS EVENING TO MATCH THE WESTERN WATERS. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WILL OCCUR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THAT LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER
WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR TO WESTERLY. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE KEWEENAW THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS THEN
PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...NLY
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