696
FXUS63 KMQT 272311
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTH AND
EAST (20% CHANCE).
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A
TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSES HAVE MIDLEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RESULTING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INTO THE U.P. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH LIGHT WIND FIELDS LEAVING US AT THE MERCY OF
LAKE BREEZES. THE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE IS QUITE APPARENT ON RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON, CRUISING WELL INLAND AND KICKING UP SOME LOW-TOPPED
CUMULUS. MEANWHILE, SOME SPOTTY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO POP UP OVER THE INTERIOR-WESTERN UP, BUT REMAIN LOW-
TOPPED ENOUGH THAT THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR UP, BUT REMAIN IN THE 60S NEARER TO THE GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS TAPER OFF INTO THE EVENING, THOUGH CLOUD COVER LINGERS
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE MIDLEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MIDWEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFF TO OUR WEST
PHASES WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND ENABLING A DEEPER SURFACE LOW
TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS THEN MOVES INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW AND IT'S ASSOCIATED FORCING STAYING TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF PULLING BACK ON POPS;
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.P. MAY ONLY GET GRAZED BY SOME SHOWERS,
WITH AMOUNTS BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS - AND EVEN SOME THUNDER, WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. STILL, SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY, WHICH IS
PROVING A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONFIDENCE IN POPS AS WELL AS ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME
PHASING WAVES CLOSE OFF INTO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SPINS OVER
QUEBEC, WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES
STUCK IN BETWEEN. THIS COULD LEAVE US SENSITIVE TO SOME EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ACTION AND ASSOCIATED POPS, BUT A DRY PERIOD BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY
AS THE RIDGE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES, THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THE DRY AIR WITH SOUNDINGS HINTING AT GOOD DAYTIME MIXING
AND A DEWPOINT DROP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS - BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY LAKE BREEZES THAT COULD CAUSE SUDDEN
WIND SHIFTS. BEGINNING THURSDAY, PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES INCREASE
OVER THE REGION WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON
HOW DAYTIME MIXING WILL WORK FOR RH, BUT IF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE
TO BELIEVED (SUCH AS THE GFS) AND THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA HAS A
GREATER INFLUENCE ON PRECIP WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAN WHAT THE
MORE MOIST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST (E.G. EC), ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WINDS POTENTIALLY 15-20MPH AND RH
VALUES IN THE 20S.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WIDESPREAD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S IN UPPER MICHIGAN'S INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED. NBM MEAN
ALREADY BRINGS INTERIOR WEST RH DOWN TO NEAR 30%, THE LOW 20S
SATURDAY WITH MID 30S EAST, AND WIDESPREAD MID 20S SUNDAY. THIS
MATCHES THE LREF PROBABILISTIC SIGNALS AS WELL. WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE PERIOD (THAT IS, FRIDAY ONWARDS) SHOULD BE MORE
ELEVATED THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE PASSING FRONT FRIDAY AND A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IF WE CAN TAP INTO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT, WE MAY FIND OURSELVES
UNDER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES IN THIS TAF
PERIOD UNDER CALM WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. LIGHT WINDS COME IN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WINDS BACK WESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WESTERN ARM. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE THURSDAY, THEN
20KT GUSTS SPREAD TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY WHILE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW. LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PREVAIL INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...LC
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