650
FXUS63 KMQT 281038
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
638 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY;
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A CUTOFF LOW
ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GRADUALLY DRIFTING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CANADA. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF WILL BE PREVALENT, WHILE
A FEED OF DRY AIR IN THE SURFACE TO 925 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AT BAY. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
MOSTLY KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES AROUND THE WI BORDER, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ~100
J/KG OF INSTABILITY ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
BROADLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE LOW TO MID-70S EXCEPT MID TO
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE EAST AS THE LOW BECOMES
REPOSITIONED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, BUT IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT WE STAY
DRY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY,
BRINGING OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS - AND EVEN SOME
THUNDER, WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. STILL, SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
DRY, WHICH IS PROVING A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONFIDENCE IN POPS AS
WELL AS ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, SOME PHASING WAVES CLOSE OFF INTO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT SPINS OVER QUEBEC, WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND
THE GREAT LAKES STUCK IN BETWEEN. THIS COULD LEAVE US SENSITIVE TO
SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTION AND ASSOCIATED POPS, BUT A DRY PERIOD
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS THE RIDGE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES, THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THE DRY AIR WITH SOUNDINGS HINTING AT GOOD DAYTIME MIXING.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP
MIXING, RHS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT, AND WINDS 15-20 MPH, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S THU/FRI (60S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR), WITH A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
SATURDAY (HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE LOW
70S INTERIOR WEST).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES IN THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. LIGHT WINDS COME IN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY. AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES TODAY INTO THURSDAY, WINDS BACK
WESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE WESTERN ARM. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE THURSDAY, THEN 20KT GUSTS SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. LIGHTER
NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...LC/THOMPSON
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...LC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page