188
FXUS63 KMQT 282333
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
733 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY;
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOMALOUSLY
STEEP RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA IS EXTENDING RIDING INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL, SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO STREAM THROUGH THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY, AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING
AND THE SHORTWAVE HEADS TOWARDS LAKE HURON. IN ADDITION, THOUGH SOME
FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS IS APPARENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE U.P.,
DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ANY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH INTO
THE LOW AND EVEN MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SO FAR TODAY,
THOUGH AREAS NEARER TO THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE ARE ONLY CLIMBING AS
HIGH AS THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DAYTIME MIXING HAS SEEN
DEWPOINTS DROPPING BELOW 40F IN MANY SPOTS, WITH RH SLIPPING BELOW
30% IN THE INERIOR-WESERN UP. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
CONCERNS FOR FIRE SPREAD.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WHILE
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK GENERALLY INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY,
BRINGING OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS - AND EVEN SOME
THUNDER, WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. STILL, SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
DRY, WHICH IS PROVING A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONFIDENCE IN POPS AS
WELL AS ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, SOME PHASING WAVES CLOSE OFF INTO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT SPINS OVER QUEBEC, WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND
THE GREAT LAKES STUCK IN BETWEEN. THIS COULD LEAVE US SENSITIVE TO
SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTION AND ASSOCIATED POPS, BUT A DRY PERIOD
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS THE RIDGE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. OUR NEXT
REAL CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION COMES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK;
WE'LL BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RIDGE, WITH A MOISTURE CONNECTION
TO THE GULF AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THESE ARE RATHER POORLY
HANDLED SO FAR WITH PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT IN TRACK AND TIMING AMONG
GUIDANCE, BUT THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE A WETTER PATTERN MIDWEEK
ONWARDS.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES, THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THE DRY AIR TO START US OFF WITH SOUNDINGS HINTING AT GOOD
DAYTIME MIXING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST
COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING, RHS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT, AND WINDS 15-
20 MPH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
INTERIOR. HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
THU/FRI (60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR), WITH A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR SATURDAY (HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST). THEN, EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE INERIOR-WESERN UP CLIMBING AS HIGH AS
THE MID 80S (OR HIGHER!) MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES IN THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. LIGHT WINDS COME IN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES TODAY INTO THURSDAY, WINDS BACK
WESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE WESTERN ARM. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE THURSDAY, THEN 20KT GUSTS SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. LIGHTER
NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...LC
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