493
FXUS63 KMQT 291356
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
956 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY;
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOW AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. 10-20% CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY
TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SO, THIS MEANS
ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH UPPER 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND EAST. ELSEWHERE, LAKESHORES WILL TOP OFF
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. MEANWHILE, RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE
25-30% RANGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, BUT WINDS UNDER 15 MPH WILL
HELP MITIGATE THE FIRE THREAT. TONIGHT, LOOK FOR INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE UP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY,
BRINGING OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS - AND EVEN SOME
THUNDER, WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. STILL, SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
DRY, WHICH IS PROVING A LIMITING FACTOR IN CONFIDENCE IN POPS AS
WELL AS ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, SOME PHASING WAVES CLOSE OFF INTO A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT SPINS OVER QUEBEC, WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND
THE GREAT LAKES STUCK IN BETWEEN. THIS COULD LEAVE US SENSITIVE TO
SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTION AND ASSOCIATED POPS, BUT A DRY PERIOD
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY AS THE RIDGE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. OUR NEXT
REAL CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION COMES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK;
WE'LL BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RIDGE, WITH A MOISTURE CONNECTION
TO THE GULF AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THESE ARE RATHER POORLY
HANDLED SO FAR WITH PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT IN TRACK AND TIMING AMONG
GUIDANCE, BUT THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE A WETTER PATTERN MIDWEEK
ONWARDS.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP CHANCES, THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE THE DRY AIR TO START US OFF WITH SOUNDINGS HINTING AT GOOD
DAYTIME MIXING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE BEST
COMBINATION OF DEEP MIXING, RHS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT, AND WINDS 15-
20 MPH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
INTERIOR. HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S
THU/FRI (60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR), WITH A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR SATURDAY (HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST). THEN, EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE INERIOR-WESERN UP CLIMBING AS HIGH AS
THE MID 80S (OR HIGHER!) MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ANY RAIN CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF SAW. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
AT CMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 956 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. LIGHT WINDS COME IN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER LAKES TODAY INTO THURSDAY, WINDS BACK
WESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE WESTERN ARM. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE THURSDAY, THEN 20KT GUSTS SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. LIGHTER
NORTHWEST WINDS THEN PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
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