987
FXUS63 KMQT 301149
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
749 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES WILL REACH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
UPPER PENINSULA TODAY, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO REDUCED AIR QUALITY;
AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY.
- A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TODAY;
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR).
- A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE INTERIOR.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOW AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CANADIAN LOW CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION TOWARD UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE U.P.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, OUTSIDE OF GUSTY
WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM, IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY
WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30
MPH. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SMOKE ADVECTION FROM WILDFIRES UPSTREAM
AND THUS AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY FOR TODAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OFF IN THE 70S AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WITH UPPER 60S OVER THE KEWEENAW, NORTH-CENTRAL, AND EAST.
TONIGHT, SUBSIDENCE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UP DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
EVENTUALLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE SOUTHERN UP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN
INCH. HOWEVER, WHERE WE CAN GET ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OR A
THUNDERSTORM (MORE LIKELY IN THE UP), ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO A
QUARTER INCH WOULD NOT BE RULED OUT. OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING NW WINDS, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 15-20MPH. GIVEN
SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LITTLE BY WAY OF RAINFALL, THIS
COULD STILL POSE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH FRIDAY
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL DEWPOINT-MIXING KIND OF DAY.
MEANWHILE, NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT IN SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY, AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR FRIDAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE CANADIAN AND MIDWEST SHORTWAVES
FINALLY PHASE OFF TO OUR EAST, WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
QUEBEC BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAVE US EXPOSED TO SOME
RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LOW-END POPS, BUT A DRY
PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
LOOKING LIKELY AS THE RIDGE FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME MIXING
ALLOWING US TO TAP INTO SOME ~20MPH GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
DEWPOINTS DROP WELL INTO THE LOWER 20S OR EVEN THE TEENS. WINDS TURN
LIGHTER SUNDAY, AND SOUNDINGS SO FAR ARE NOT AS SUPPORTIVE OF
DEWPOINT DROPS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN UP (60S TO
THE EAST AND IN THE KEWEENAW), RH IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 20S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE UP, AND
GENERALLY IN THE 70S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHER PWAT AIR STARTS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WE COME TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
(WITH A GULF CONNECTION), BUT WITH DRY WEATHER PERSISTING AT LEAST
UNTIL MIDWEEK AND WINDS ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CONCERNS
FOR ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS PERSIST. OUR NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION COMES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THESE ARE RATHER POORLY HANDLED SO FAR WITH PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT
IN TRACK AND TIMING AMONG GUIDANCE, BUT THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE A
WETTER PATTERN MIDWEEK ONWARDS WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND MORE
TOWARDS NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
MAIN IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KTS
AT CMX AND SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO COME OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD 15-20KT GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. HOWEVER, HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS VEER
NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPECT
WINDS TO TURN CALMER, REMAINING BELOW 20KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
MIZ001>005-009>012-084.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
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