875
FXUS63 KMQT 301927
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
327 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE PLUMES FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT; AN AIR QUALITY
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE
INTERIOR.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW DROPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UP. MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE UP - APART FROM IN THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE STRATO-CU IS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN INLAND OF SUPERIOR IN MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE, NNW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING IN
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. PERHAPS DUE
TO THE HIGH AFTERNOON SUN ANGLE, THIS IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO SPOT
ON SATELLITE AT THE MOMENT - BUT WEBCAMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA STILL
SHOW HAZY SKIES, WITH NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE/HAZE MOST PERSISTENT IN THE
FAR WESTERN UP. SMOKE/HAZE IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS DAYTIME HIGHS TO
THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH ONLY THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UP CLIMBING ABOVE 70F. WINDS ARE
TURNING INCREASINGLY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-
30MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL, RH IS
ABOVE 50%, AND PLENTY OF SPOTS PICKED UP AT LEAST A LITTLE RAIN
TODAY, SO WE AREN'T DEALING WITH IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD.
EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHILE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. SOME OF OUR
TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S, BUT
WILL NOTE THAT THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE/HAZE ALOFT MAY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THOSE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES PHASING OFF TO OUR
EAST WILL PRODUCE STACKED LOW PRESSURE THAT SPINS OVER QUEBEC
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS,
SUPPORTING DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. WE'LL BE UNDER A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW
US TO TAP INTO ~20KT WINDS ALOFT WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY
STEEP DEWPOINT DROP. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 20S
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE UP, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS NEAR
THE WI BORDER. RH DROPS INTO THE 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS IN TURN, AND
WITH GUSTY WINDS, AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT. WINDS TURN LIGHTER SUNDAY, AND SOUNDINGS SO FAR ARE NOT AS
SUPPORTIVE OF DEWPOINT DROPS AS SIGNIFICANT AS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE WESTERN
UP (60S TO THE EAST AND IN THE KEWEENAW), RH IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RANGING
WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE UP, AND
GENERALLY IN THE 70S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHER PWAT AIR STARTS TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE
CONNECTS US TO SOME GULF MOISTURE. HOWEVER, WITH DRY WEATHER
PERSISTING UNTIL AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT REAL
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COUPLE OF PHASING SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
(MODEST BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 40KTS AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
MLCAPE). EXACT DETAINS ON TRACK/TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT ENSEMBLES
STILL POINT TO WIDESPREAD 0.50IN+ RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH
AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ACTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WET WEATHER, THOUGH CERTAINTY IN TRACK/TIMING
CONTINUES TO WANE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND MORE
TOWARDS NORMAL MIDWEEK ONWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 749 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
MAIN IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KTS
AT CMX AND SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, COMING OUT
OF THE NNW AND GUSTING TO AROUND 15-20KTS IN THE WEST HALF OF THE
LAKE AND UP TO 20-25KTS IN THE EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY TURN
CALMER INTO THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN; HOWEVER, NW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 15-20KS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE SATURDAY. WINDS COME IN BELOW 20KTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
PICK UP TO AROUND 20-25KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...LC
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