668
FXUS63 KMQT 241744
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
GOES-EAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH
AND EAST WHILE THE NORTH AND WEST HAVE CLEARED OUT. THE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED
REMNANT LOW-IMPACT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UP.
MEANWHILE, CLEARING IS COURTESY OF A RAP-ANALYZED 1024MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MN. WITH FLOW ABOVE 700MB MOSTLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTH, BUT THE ENCROACHING HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES
ELSEWHERE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
THE LAKESHORES AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE THE INTERIOR WILL BE
AROUND 70, A MASSIVE DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAST FEW
DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK TONIGHT
WILL BE A CERTAIN RELIEF FOLLOWING THE RECENT HEAT. DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS LINGERING AT THE SURFACE, THE HREF
SIGNALS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW 1 MILE DUE
TO FOG, ESPECIALLY PLACES CLOSE TO THE COOL, MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
WEDNESDAY MORNING REMAINS DRY, BUT CHANCES OF RAIN BEGIN TO CREEP UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD
OF A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PROVIDES FORCING FOR SOME SHOWERS. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE BEST MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE UP AS VAPOR TRANSPORT PLOTS SHOW SOME GULF/MONSOONAL
FLOW FLOWING INTO WISCONSIN BUT HAVING A SHARP GRADIENT UP TO THE
UP. AS SUCH, PWATS CLOSER TO AN INCH ARE FORECAST INSTEAD OF THE
OVER 1.75 INCH PWATS IN THE GREEN BAY AND SOUTH VICINITY. MEAN LREF
QPF VALUES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY ARE AROUND A HALF INCH ALONG
THE MI/WI STATE LINE, GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE NORTH/EASTERN UP. WITH THE TIMING OF BETTER SHOWER
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING, INSTABILITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABUNDANT, SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST,
SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE (AROUND 15%) FOR THE CITY OF MENOMINEE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A 500MB CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO FLORIDA,
HELPING ERODE THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES ALSO MOVING EAST AND DEAMPLIFYING, FLOW
GOES QUASI-ZONAL, ALLOWING FOR THE FORMER ROCKIES TROUGHING FEATURE
TO SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING WITH IT DISTURBED WEATHER
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DIVERGE THIS COMING WEEKEND ONWARD, WITH SOME SHOWING WEAK
RIDGING RECOVERING SATURDAY AND OTHERS STAYING MORE ZONAL. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE SOME EARLY INDICATIONS OF A PROMINENT TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DISTURBED WEATHER. IN THE
WAKE OF TODAY'S COLD FRONT, THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL (PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER)
WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SUBTLE IMPULSE
RIDING THE UPPER RIDGE FORCES PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. THE GULF
CONNECTION PERSISTS WITH FLOW ALOFT ARCING FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
COASTLINE TO THE GREAT LAKES, SO MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL, THOUGH
SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS FORCING AND COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIMITING
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT BAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH, WITH A
"WORST CASE SCENARIO" 90TH PERCENTILE BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
OF RAIN. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NEAR WISCONSIN, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL UP.
THURSDAY IS WHEN THE MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING THAT USED TO BE OVER
THE ROCKIES ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY IS STILL FAIRLY
LIMITED, BUT WITH MORE ROBUST FORCING, EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
(30 PERCENT CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH). STRONGER FORCING WITH
PWATS PUSHING 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN HIGHER QPF, WITH THE LREF
SHOWING CHANCES OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN AT ABOUT 10 PERCENT BY THE END
OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A SOAKING,
AS CHANCES OF A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS 40-60 PERCENT (HIGHEST SOUTH,
LOWEST KEWEENAW). THE WPC IS WATCHING THE UP FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL, GIVING A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (CATEGORY 2 OF
4, OR AROUND 15 PERCENT).
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (15-25%) LINGER IN
THE FORECAST DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, BUT
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UP. ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO THE
NEXT TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY
RANGE, WHICH COULD BRING WITH IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE
MEANTIME, A WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER ENCROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS FALLING BELOW 3 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL
INDUCE SOME CHANCES OF FG AT CMX (AROUND 30 PERCENT) AND SAW (AROUND
20 PERCENT), THOUGH AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY HAVE A TEMPO AT CMX AND
NO MENTION YET IN THE TAF AT SAW. CLOUDS AND EVENTUAL -SHRA WILL
ENCROACH ON THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THAT
WILL BE AFTER THE TAF PERIOD, SAVE FOR BKN SKIES RETURNING TO THE
IWD TAF LATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 459 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
IN THE WAKE OF A SECOND COLD FRONT THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE
INCREASING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WINDS MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. ON THU, NE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO ~20 KTS ACROSS
THE W ARM OF THE LAKE. WINDS FALL BACK BELOW 20 KTS FOR FRI AS THEY
BACK W. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THU INTO FRI.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI/LC
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JABLONSKI/LC
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