108
FXUS63 KMQT 260551
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
151 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY, RAIN OVERSPREADS THE UP. 24-HOUR RAIN
RATES OF 1+ INCH ARE 60% LIKELY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE (10-30% CHANCE, HIGHEST NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN). THE WPC
OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS A SLIGHT RISK (CATEGORY 2 OF 4).
- AFTER NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, A BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE
80S IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE (AROUND 50%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
GOES-EAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO MN/IA/WI. THE LIFT INTERSECTS WITH GULF
MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF BROAD 1020MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE US SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL BE FUELING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. KMQT RADAR RETURNS AT 19Z SHOW THE
PRECIPITATION JUST ENTERING THE UP FROM WISCONSIN. ALOFT,
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES LATELY WILL BE
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
BASIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING EASTERN CONUS RIDGING,
FURTHER BOLSTERING BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK. CLEARER SKIES EARLIER TODAY HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S IN SPITE OF EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVERAGE COMING IN AT PEAK RADIATIONAL HEATING.
TONIGHT, THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE UP.
LOW LEVEL JET FORCING WILL ALSO SUPPORT MORE FORCING OF PRECIP, AND
NAM SOUNDINGS AT KSAW SHOWING SATURATION UP TO 200MB HELPS SHOW HOW
DEEP THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE. THE HREF SHOWS
UP TO 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF ISOLATED HALF INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES WITH WIDER AREAS OVER 40 PERCENT LIKELY TO SEE OVER 1"/6HR
RATES. LPMM QPF PLOTS EVEN HIGHLIGHT SOME POTENTIAL FOR PEAK QPF
OVER 2.5" BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES FOR THE INTERIOR UP ESPECIALLY BOUNDED
BETWEEN IRON RIVER, MARQUETTE, MENOMINEE, AND ESCANABA. HOWEVER,
EURO ENSEMBLE MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 250 J/KG DOES SHOW THAT
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LACKING, WHICH DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN
FLASH FLOODING SOMEWHAT, BUT PAINTS A PICTURE OF MORE LONG-DURATION,
WEAKER RAINFALL TO GET TO THOSE RAINFALL TOTALS. THAT SAID, EVEN
PEDESTRIAN RAINFALL RATES COULD CAUSE SOME HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES, SO
AREAS THAT HAVE POOR DRAINAGE (INCLUDING URBAN AREAS THAT COMMONLY
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING) MAY SEE SOME PROBLEMS. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO ONLY BE ABOUT 15-30 PERCENT LIKELY IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
EASTERN UP OVERNIGHT, AND NO SEVERE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED.
MOST CAMS SHOW A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THURSDAY
MORNING AROUND 15Z, BUT ANOTHER WAVE LOOKS TO BRING MORE RAINFALL IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE TROUGHING ALOFT MOVING MORE OVER
THE AREA, MORE ROBUST FORCING LEADS THE CAMS TO SHOW A MORE
CONVECTIVE LOOK. IF THESE CONVECTIVE CELLS TRAIN OVER AN AREA, WHICH
STORM MOTION DOES LOOK PARALLEL TO THE FORCING, PLUS PRIOR
PRECIPITATION SATURATING THE GROUNDS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST
THREATS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A HALF
INCH OF RAIN PER 6 HOURS SEEMS LIKELY (50+%). PRECIPITATION AND
WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION THEN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. SCATTERING SKIES AND INCREASING PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS. INTO THE WEEKEND, AS BOTH MAJOR SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE
FEATURES OVER THE CONUS THIS PAST WEEK WILL HAVE DECAYED, QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
WEATHER BEING HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAKER IMPULSE SHORTWAVES. GIVEN
THE SPREAD OF PATHS OF SUCH SHORTWAVES FOR FORCING, UNCERTAINTY IN
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND IS HIGH (AND THUS,
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR THE UP YET), BUT INGREDIENTS
WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AS A WARMUP TO THE 80S IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
WARMTH COMES SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH LREF MEAN SURFACE CAPE GROWING
TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE INTERIOR WEST BY 00Z SUNDAY AND AROUND
2000 J/KG BY 00Z MONDAY, BOTH COINCIDENT WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF BULK
SHEAR TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE WEAKLY-FORCED PATTERN, IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTICS AND ENSEMBLES RAPIDLY DIVERGE IN HOW THE NEXT PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF, HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES TO PLAINS WITH TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS LEADS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UP INTERRUPTED BY CLIPPER SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
BRINGING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES BUT OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES AT
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS, WHICH THE CPC OUTLOOKS BROADLY ALIGN
WITH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PERIOD AS A
COUPLE WAVES TRIGGER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SO FAR THIS MORNING, VFR HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AT IWD AND CMX WITH
MVFR CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT SAW. HOWEVER, ANTICIPATE
DETERIORATION INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING,
WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH PROB30S. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL AROUND LATE
MORNING, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER THU 18Z. BUT, DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT DURING THIS LULL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO
TONIGHT. ON THU, NE WINDS INCREASE TO ~20 KTS ACROSS THE W ARM OF
THE LAKE, THEN WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW INTO EARLY FRI MAY GUST TO
NEAR 20KTS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS FALL
BACK BELOW 20 KTS BY FRI AFTERNOON AS THEY BACK W. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI. WINDS STAY
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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