016
FXUS63 KMQT 260856
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
456 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.7 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" POSSIBLE (~50% CHANCE) IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. THE WPC OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS A SLIGHT
RISK (CATEGORY 2 OF 4).
- AFTER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, A BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 80S IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
(AROUND 50%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD
WITH A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NE. AT
THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER N ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A WEAK
SC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS EXTENDING ENE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS SPAN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E WITH HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES STILL LINGERING OVER THE FAR E. MRMS RAINFALL RATES
OF 0.25-0.75" IN THE HEAVIEST SHRA MATCH UP WITH SFC OB
ACCUMULATIONS. FLOODING CONCERNS HAVE REMAINED LOW THROUGH THIS
FIRST ROUND, BROADLY HOLDING AROUND 15-40% OF FFG. TEMPS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50S.
SHRA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DIMINISHES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE NE, THE LLJ LIGHTENS UP, AND 700MB F-GEN
WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OVER THE W
TO NEAR 0.5" ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHRA. NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS ROUND AS
INSTABILITY HAS FALLEN OFF. A FEW HOURS OF A PRECIP LULL IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA WITH THE DEEPER SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE
TODAY BRINGS E WINDS ~10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
SOME ISO/SCT -SHRA RETURN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN SECOND
ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIP LIFTS OVER THE UP INTO TONIGHT. WAA
ACCOMPANIES A DEEPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OVER THE UP THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AND A STRENGTHENING LLJ; A WEAKER UPPER JET STREAK RRQ
OVERHEAD WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. THE SHRA IN THIS SECOND ROUND WILL
LIKELY HAVE A MORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO THEM GIVEN A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE (MODEL DEPENDENT, BUT LIKELY 500J/KG OR LESS) OVER
THE E, HIGHEST NEAR LAKE MI AND BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KTS.
FAVORABLE DEEP CLOUD MOISTURE IS AGAIN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS UP
TO 12KFT WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.6-1.9", HIGHEST SE. THE 6/26 0Z
HREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 1" ARE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 15-25% WITH
STREAKS OF UP TO 50% OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND E. PROBABILITIES OF 2"
OR MORE ARE CAPPED AT 15-25%. THE GOING FCST REFLECTS WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI MORNING BETWEEN 0.75-1.0"
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1.25-1.5" IN THE N-CENTAL AND NE.
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SECOND ROUND AND PRIOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP BRINGS SOME LOW FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL (~15% FOR MOST
OUTSIDE THE FAR W SPINE OF THE UP), REFLECTED IN THE WPC SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
PRECIP ENDS FROM W TO E ON FRI, BUT LINGERING SCT/BKN SKIES KEEP
TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE DAY; A FEW SPOTS MAY WARM
~70 IN THE S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS. INTO THE WEEKEND, AS BOTH MAJOR SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE
FEATURES OVER THE CONUS THIS PAST WEEK WILL HAVE DECAYED, QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
WEATHER BEING HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAKER IMPULSE SHORTWAVES. GIVEN
THE SPREAD OF PATHS OF SUCH SHORTWAVES FOR FORCING, UNCERTAINTY IN
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND IS HIGH (AND THUS,
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR THE UP YET), BUT INGREDIENTS
WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AS A WARMUP TO THE 80S IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
WARMTH COMES SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH LREF MEAN SURFACE CAPE GROWING
TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE INTERIOR WEST BY 00Z SUNDAY AND AROUND
2000 J/KG BY 00Z MONDAY, BOTH COINCIDENT WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF BULK
SHEAR TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE WEAKLY-FORCED PATTERN, IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTICS AND ENSEMBLES RAPIDLY DIVERGE IN HOW THE NEXT PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF, HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES TO PLAINS WITH TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS LEADS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UP INTERRUPTED BY CLIPPER SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
BRINGING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES BUT OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES AT
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS, WHICH THE CPC OUTLOOKS BROADLY ALIGN
WITH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PERIOD AS A
COUPLE WAVES TRIGGER WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
SO FAR THIS MORNING, VFR HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AT IWD AND CMX WITH
MVFR CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT SAW. HOWEVER, ANTICIPATE
DETERIORATION INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING,
WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH PROB30S. AFTER A BIT OF A LULL AROUND LATE
MORNING, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER THU 18Z. BUT, DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT DURING THIS LULL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO
TONIGHT. ON THU, NE WINDS INCREASE TO ~20 KTS ACROSS THE W ARM OF
THE LAKE, THEN WINDS BACKING TO THE NNW INTO EARLY FRI MAY GUST TO
NEAR 20KTS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS FALL
BACK BELOW 20 KTS BY FRI AFTERNOON AS THEY BACK W. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI. WINDS STAY
BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JABLONSKI
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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