445
FXUS63 KMQT 261740
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH OF RAIN IS ~50% LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE WEST, NORTH CENTRAL, AND EAST BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. THE WPC OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS A SLIGHT
RISK (CATEGORY 2 OF 4).
- A BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 80S IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE (AROUND 50%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
DESPITE A MOSTLY CLEAR KMQT RADAR AT NOON EASTERN TODAY, GOES-EAST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANSIVE REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THAT DROPPED UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL UP THIS MORNING. ALOFT, RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
DEAMPLIFYING TROUGHING MOVING OVER THE PLAINS STATES TODAY
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO THE
MICHIGAN LOWER PENINSULA. THIS BREAK IN THE RAIN IS ONLY MOMENTARY
AS CAMS SHOW SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERSPREADING THE UP TONIGHT. WITH MORE ROBUST FORCING WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD, CAMS SHOW A MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK RELATIVE TO
THE BROADER LOOK OF THINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. IF TRAINING CAN OCCUR
(MOST CAMS SAY NOT MUCH TRAINING BUT A FEW SUCH AS THE HRRR DO),
SATURATED SOILS COMBINED WITH LONGER DURATION CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL RATES WOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS REMAINS LOW AS EACH CAM LOOKS A BIT DIFFERENT IN
REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION AND WHETHER IT TRAINS OR
NOT. HREF LPMM 6- HOUR QPF CHARTS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
1.15+"/6HR RATES AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO, THOUGH HREF CHANCES
OF 1+"/6HR RATES ARE ONLY UP TO 20 PERCENT AND MOSTLY OVER AREAS
THAT GOT LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, SO SOILS
MAY NOT BE AS SATURATED. WITH FACTORS FOR AND OPPOSED TO FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL, WPC'S OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS
AT A SLIGHT RISK (CATEGORY 2 OF 4). CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES AROUND
30 PERCENT, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS DESPITE
DECENT MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG, THE SHEAR IN THE MU LAYER
IS UNIDIRECTIONAL AND DOESN'T HAVE MUCH SPEED SHEAR.
RAIN ENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS
OF FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME REMAINING UPSLOPE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR
ANY AREAS WITH A NW-FACING SLOPE. THE REMNANT LIGHT PRECIP AND
CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER IN THE NORTH AND WEST
RELATIVE TO THE CLEARING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH THE COPPER COUNTRY
COMPARED TO NEAR 70 FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS. INTO THE WEEKEND, AS BOTH MAJOR SYNOPTIC LONGWAVE
FEATURES OVER THE CONUS THIS PAST WEEK WILL HAVE DECAYED, QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
WEATHER BEING HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAKER IMPULSE SHORTWAVES. GIVEN
THE SPREAD OF PATHS OF SUCH SHORTWAVES FOR FORCING, UNCERTAINTY IN
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND IS HIGH (AND THUS,
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS FOR THE UP YET), BUT INGREDIENTS
WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AS A WARMUP TO THE 80S IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
WARMTH COMES SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH LREF MEAN SURFACE CAPE GROWING
TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE INTERIOR WEST BY 00Z SUNDAY AND AROUND
2000 J/KG BY 00Z MONDAY, BOTH COINCIDENT WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF BULK
SHEAR TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE WEAKLY-FORCED PATTERN, IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTICS AND ENSEMBLES RAPIDLY DIVERGE IN HOW THE NEXT PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF, HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES TO PLAINS WITH TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS LEADS TO PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UP INTERRUPTED BY CLIPPER SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE
BRINGING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES BUT OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES AT
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS, WHICH THE CPC OUTLOOKS BROADLY ALIGN
WITH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE BRINGING
SHRA AND CHANCES OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL ALSO
LEAD TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND VIS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. FG AND
CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT AT SAW FROM THE AIRPORT MINIMUMS THIS
MORNING TO LIFR NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TO MVFR THIS EVENING,
WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
ELSEWHERE, THE SCT DECK JUST ABOVE 3KFT AT CMX IS EXPECTED TO FILL
IN AND DESCEND TO MVFR THIS EVENING. IWD IS ALREADY AT MVFR AND WILL
REMAIN SUCH UNTIL DUSK. THEN, AS -SHRA EXPANDS ACROSS THE UP,
CEILINGS AND VIS BEGIN TO LOWER, EVENTUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AT ALL
SITES TO IFR AND THEN LIFR. CHANCES OF EMBEDDED -TSRA TONIGHT IS
ABOUT 30 PERCENT AT SAW AND IWD BUT UNDER 15 PERCENT AT CMX. LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS MOIST UPSLOPING FLOW
KEEPS LOW CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST IN SPITE OF -SHRA ENDING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 516 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
E TO NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE
WITH GUSTS ~20-25 KTS OVER THE FAR W ARM OF THE LAKE INTO THIS
EVENING. NE WINDS AT 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE WINDS BACK N AND SETTLE BELOW 15 KTS FOR FRI
NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME W FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LIKELY
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW 20 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO
FRI.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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