655
FXUS63 KMQT 200634
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
234 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL LEAD TO HAZY SKIES TODAY. SMOKE
MAY MIX TO THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN A SMOKEY SMELL AND
REDUCED AIR QUALITY.
- NEXT SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
TWO BROAD TROUGHS COVER CANADA'S EASTERN AND WESTERN EDGES WITH MID-
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE-
CANADA. SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TROUGH, WEAK ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ARE ANALYZED
BY RAP ANALYSIS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS SUPPORTED LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE, AND PATCHY FOG
HERE AND THERE THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST WHILE 50S HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TODAY, TONIGHT, AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ELEVATED
SMOKE AND HAZE, THANKS TO UPSTREAM WILDFIRES IN CANADA HAVING A
CLEAR PATH TO SEND ITS SMOKE. HRRR SMOKE DOES SUGGEST MIXING TODAY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX SMOKE TO THE SURFACE IN MOST LOCATIONS IN
UPPER MICHIGAN, WHICH MAY RESULT IN DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY. THE SAME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THE SMOKE WILL FOCUS FROM THE
WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND WESTWARD INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THANKS TO THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO, DAYTIME
MIXING SHOULD AGAIN PROMOTE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IN PARTS OF WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S, SAVE FOR
POCKETS OF MID-UPPER 60S BY LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S INTERIOR AND 50S BY THE
LAKESHORES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO FURTHER MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED
INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH AN
INCREASING LLJ TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WINDS MAY TURN ELEVATED WHILE
MODEST MUCAPE AND BULK SHEAR POINT TO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS. PWATS POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH THE 2IN MARK ALSO INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS; UNSURPRISING, THEN, THAT WPC
HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS WILL
SIMPLY BE WORTH MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS. RIDGING LATE WEEK
WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY SAVE FOR IWD BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND
LIFR AT THE START OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THIS LOCALIZED FOG SHOULD
REMAIN TRANSIENT AND BURN OFF BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE, GOES NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS REVEALS CLEAR SKIES AT SAW AND CMX. SOME PATCHY FOG
REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THE WESTERN KEWEENAW AND SHOULDN'T MAKE A RUN
UP THE TERRAIN, BUT BARES WATCHING. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, HAVE
INCLUDED HZ TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND AT LEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVE WAY TO
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME ELEVATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE POSSIBLE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...JTP/LC
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...LC
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