257
FXUS63 KMQT 201852
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
252 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL LEAD TO SOME HAZY SKIES AND
COULD LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN AIR QUALITY AT THE SURFACE THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEXT SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THE REST OF
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY IS KEEPING THE U.P. MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN SOME SMOKE FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WITH IT TOO. THAT BEING SAID, IT SEEMS LIKE THE
SMOKE IS DECREASING AS PURPLEAIR SENSORS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MODERATE TO UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS
CATEGORIES. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST (12Z) GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR,
THE SMOKE PLUME LOOKS TO MOSTLY GET OUT OF THE U.P. BY THIS EVENING
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN; THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE
IRONWOOD AREA WHERE THE SMOKE COULD HANG AROUND TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SLOWLY BEGINS TO MAKE A RETREAT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH
LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 40S IN THE INTERIOR EAST TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE OVER THE WEST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A
NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY TOO, ALTHOUGH WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASING LATE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES OUR AREA, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET UP INTO THE 70S, WITH THE AREA NEAR ONTONAGON
POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR THE MOST PART THIS
WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER US TODAY GIVES WAY
TO TROUGHING THIS WEEK, EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO POTENTIALLY
BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER US. WHILE THE STUFF
MOVING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE ALL THAT IMPACTFUL (OTHER THAN SOME GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS), RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS LOOK TO INCREASE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HEAVY SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
LOWER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO OUR REGION, A JET STREAK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ONTARIO, AND ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THIS, BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAS PWATS GETTING TO AROUND 2 INCHES, WHICH IS NEAR THE MAX OF
MODELED CLIMATOLOGY (!). WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING ABUNDANT
CAPE AND A MARGINAL BULK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WE COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS EACH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THUS, WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND FLOODING ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK; IT'S UNSURPRISING THEN THAT
WPC HAS PUT THE WESTERN U.P. AND COPPER COUNTRY UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF THE WEST
AND CENTRAL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (MOST OF THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT). IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE ENERGY EXPECTED
AND STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, SOME SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE SEEN
IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, NAMELY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS; SPC
HAS OUTLINED THIS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BY PUTTING THE
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK OVER THE SAME AREAS AS WPC'S SLIGHT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK.
IT APPEARS THAT THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CEASE OVER OUR AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION AS THE TROUGHING PATTERN FINALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE TO AROUND NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOMINATE FROM MONDAY ONWARDS THIS WEEK, EVEN AFTER WE TRANSITION
FROM A WETTER TO DRIER PATTERN BY THIS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
STILL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE ITS UNKNOWN
AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH OF THE SMOKE ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DID STICK MOSTLY TO THE SOONEST OBSERVATIONS
FOR EACH OF THE SITES ON WHETHER THERE WAS VIS REDUCTIONS OR NOT TO
INCLUDE FU IN THE TAFS. FU SHOULD LEAVE THE SAW TAF HERE SHORTLY AND
IS ALREADY OUT OF THE CMX TAF. IWD COULD SEE FU HANG AROUND FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT HANGS OUT OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND PUSHES INTO
WISCONSIN SIMULTANEOUSLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
LIGHT WINDS OF GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS DOMINATE THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY GIVES WAY TO A TROUGHING PATTERN AND MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING STRONG.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP
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