689
FXUS63 KMQT 231136
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS THROUGH THE DAY.
- STORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, AND STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (AT LEAST 15%) OF
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MOST
OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
- STRONG WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS ON LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
SYNOPTIC SETUP AT 500 MB THIS MORNING CONSISTS OF BROAD RIDGING OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING SHIFTING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A RATHER COMPLEX
SETUP AT THE SURFACE WITH LOWS SITUATED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM WYOMING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA, INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO. SO, THIS PUTS UPPER MICHIGAN IN FRONT OF A COLD FRONT
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO LOWS AND A WARM
FRONT DRAPING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY.
TODAY, THETA-E PLUME BECOMES WELL-DEFINED IN THE WED 12-18Z TIME
FRAME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORT THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH DEW POINTS
INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW 80S. AND, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND WARM FRONT
CONVERGE LATER TODAY, THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
U.P. WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS TRAINING AND HEAVY RAINFALL, A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED BY WPC.
THURSDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH WANING INSTABILITY AND THE BEST FORCING EAST OF
THE AREA, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER.
ALSO OF NOTE, A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY TODAY AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE PRECIPITATION CREATE 4-6 FOOT SWELLS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THUS
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LIFE THREATENING SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
EXERCISE CAUTION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
AS TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MARCH THROUGH CANADA, STUBBORN RIDGING WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, THOUGH RETROGRADING SOMEWHAT TO BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UP BEING IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS
500MB HEIGHTS AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST
PART AND DEW POINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S AS PREVAILING WINDS ADVECT
IN CORN BELT MOISTURE AND OTHER SOUTHERN US MOISTURE SOURCES AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL DRIVE
OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THOUGH THE SMALL NATURE
OF SUCH EMBEDDED WAVES MAKE DETAILS CHALLENGING TO DERIVE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS DETERMINING TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS FOLLOWING THE
STORMS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE
LOCATED NEAR CMX THIS MORNING, CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND
15Z. AT IWD/SAW, A STORM CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MORE PROBABLE TIMEFRAME IS IN
THE 20-02Z TIMEFRAME, WITH MORE STORMS POSSIBLE AT CMX AT THAT TIME
AS WELL. WENT WITH PROB30 WORDING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN AND STORMS, CIGS SHOULD BE VFR TO AT TIMES MVFR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FOLLOWING THE STORMS, RAIN MAY CONTINUE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, WITH CIGS POSSIBLY FALLING TO IFR AT IWD/CMX
LATER TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
LIGHT WINDS OF GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST, SAVE FOR SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS DEEPENS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME THE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, BRINGING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, ERRATIC/DAMAGING
WINDS (UP TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE), AND A WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT (ABOUT A 2 PERCENT CHANCE).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...GS/TDUD
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...GS
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