659
FXUS63 KMQT 241710
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
110 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, ENDING
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE TO
DRIFT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SURFACE ANALYSIS AT THIS TIME SHOW A
COLD FRONT CONTINUING WITH ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. BUT, THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS SUBSIDED. AND, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL ALSO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS TO THE EAST. WITH THE SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN, WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, TODAY'S HIGHS WILL DIP SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S BY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, TONIGHT'S OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF PASSING COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WHILE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH
OF CANADA. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHORTWAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM BACK INTO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LEAVES THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER, CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS ALSO
BUILDING IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE; WHILE THE SMOKE BY ITSELF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUB-VFR VIS, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FG LATE
TONIGHT BRING LOWER VIS AT THE TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY IWD AND SAW.
WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY THE
LAKES AND OTHER SMALL-SCALE PROCESSES, MAKING THEM FAIRLY WEAK FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH-ISH THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHILE WINDS
BECOME CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
20KTS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE, BRINGING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, ERRATIC/DAMAGING
WINDS (UP TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE), AND A WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT (ABOUT A 2 PERCENT CHANCE). AFTER TONIGHT, WINDS FALL BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE AND REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...NL/TDUD
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...LC
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