618
FXUS63 KMQT 241830
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
230 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LOWER THE AIR QUALITY TO
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (ORANGE AQI) TO OCCASIONALLY
UNHEALTHY (RED AQI) THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS RECEDE OUT OF THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON (AS SEEN ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY) AS THE COLD FRONT LEAVES OUR AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH AIRNOW SENSORS OVER THE NORTHLAND OF MINNESOTA ALREADY DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (ORANGE AQI) TO
UNHEALTHY (RED AQI) RANGES. THUS, THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENT, GREAT LAKES, AND ENERGY HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE SFC SMOKE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
(ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL U.P. IF THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL IS TO BE
BELIEVED) UNTIL AT LEAST THE START OF THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING PASSES THROUGH. THEREFORE, TRY TO AVOID STRENUOUS EXERCISE
TODAY AND FRIDAY, AND KEEP YOUR WINDOWS CLOSED DURING THE NIGHT TO
PREVENT THE SMOKE FROM GETTING INDOORS.
OTHER THAN THE AIR QUALITY CONCERNS, THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TODAY LOOKS TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO
GET INTO THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR AREAS; SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE
SEEN IN THOSE INTERIOR AREAS AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND THE
DEWPOINT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY AS HIGHS ARE
PROJECTED TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE U.P.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WHILE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH
OF CANADA. THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SHORTWAVES RUNNING AROUND THE RIDGE WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM BACK INTO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LEAVES THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER, CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS ALSO
BUILDING IN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE; WHILE THE SMOKE BY ITSELF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SUB-VFR VIS, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FG LATE
TONIGHT BRING LOWER VIS AT THE TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY IWD AND SAW.
WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY DRIVEN BY THE
LAKES AND OTHER SMALL-SCALE PROCESSES, MAKING THEM FAIRLY WEAK FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH-ISH THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHILE WINDS
BECOME CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2025
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH MAY CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND
20KTS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE, BRINGING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, ERRATIC/DAMAGING
WINDS (UP TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE), AND A WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT (ABOUT A 2 PERCENT CHANCE). AFTER TONIGHT, WINDS FALL BACK
ACROSS THE LAKE AND REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...NL/TDUD
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...LC
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