865
FXUS63 KMQT 242311
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LOWER THE AIR QUALITY TO
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (ORANGE AQI) TO OCCASIONALLY
UNHEALTHY (RED AQI) THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS RECEDE OUT OF THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON (AS SEEN ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY) AS THE COLD FRONT LEAVES OUR AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH AIRNOW SENSORS OVER THE NORTHLAND OF MINNESOTA ALREADY DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (ORANGE AQI) TO
UNHEALTHY (RED AQI) RANGES. THUS, THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENT, GREAT LAKES, AND ENERGY HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE SFC SMOKE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
(ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL U.P. IF THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL IS TO BE
BELIEVED) UNTIL AT LEAST THE START OF THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING PASSES THROUGH. THEREFORE, TRY TO AVOID STRENUOUS EXERCISE
TODAY AND FRIDAY, AND KEEP YOUR WINDOWS CLOSED DURING THE NIGHT TO
PREVENT THE SMOKE FROM GETTING INDOORS.
OTHER THAN THE AIR QUALITY CONCERNS, THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TODAY LOOKS TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO
GET INTO THE MID 50S IN THE INTERIOR AREAS; SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE
SEEN IN THOSE INTERIOR AREAS AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND THE
DEWPOINT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY AS HIGHS ARE
PROJECTED TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE U.P.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
A TROUGHING PATTERN WEAKENING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, SOME SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK OVER THE U.P. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK NATURE OF THE IMPULSES, MOST
OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE GETTING AT LEAST SOME HELP FROM
DIURNAL PROCESSES. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODELS DEPICTING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEARS BEING AROUND 30 KNOTS, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL. NEVERTHELESS, WE DO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AS SOME REMNANT CAPE
IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
EXPECT A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BUILDS
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST THE REST OF NEXT WEEK; EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP DOWN TO AS COOL AS 5C, CAUSING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CEILINGS WITH SURFACE SMOKE ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN CURRENTLY. THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, CEILINGS AREN'T
EXPECTED, BUT COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL HELP SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPING.
THE RESULTING MIX OF SURFACE SMOKE AND MIST/FOG MAY RESULT IN IFR
VISIBILITIES. CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST AT KIWD AND KSAW. VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRIDAY, BUT SURFACE SMOKE WILL LINGER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GENERALLY REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SAVE FOR POSSIBLY SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH/AROUND THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE BEING SEEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE COULD SEE
THE FOG SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN NEARSHORES TONIGHT, UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL HIGH AT THIS TIME ON WHETHER THIS FOG EXPANSION WILL OCCUR OR
NOT. THUS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...TAP
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