176
FXUS63 KMQT 250831
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
431 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LOWER THE AIR QUALITY TO UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (ORANGE AQI) TO OCCASIONALLY UNHEALTHY (RED
AQI) TODAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER
MICHIGAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DESPITE THE QUIET
WEATHER, GROUND-BASED OBS ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING,
THUS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. AND, THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE AIR QUALITY TODAY AS AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN DUE
TO THE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE HRRR
SMOKE MODEL TRENDS TOWARD A LINGERING SMOKE THREAT INTO THE
WEEKEND. OTHER THAN THE POOR AIR QUALITY, THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID 80S WITH A
BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOOK FOR THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST INTO TOMORROW AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THEREFORE, TRY TO AVOID STRENUOUS EXERCISE TODAY AND
SATURDAY, AND KEEP YOUR WINDOWS CLOSED DURING THE NIGHT TO
PREVENT THE SMOKE FROM GETTING INDOORS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A TROUGHING PATTERN WEAKENING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, SOME SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK OVER THE U.P. THROUGH
MONDAY. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK NATURE OF THE IMPULSES, MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE GETTING AT LEAST SOME HELP FROM DIURNAL
PROCESSES. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODELS DEPICTING 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
BEING AROUND 30 KNOTS, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY MARGINAL. NEVERTHELESS, WE DO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME REMNANT CAPE IS PROJECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BUILDS
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST THE REST OF NEXT WEEK; EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP DOWN TO AS COOL AS 5C, CAUSING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS TAF PERIOD; HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF SURFACE SMOKE AND FOG/MIST WILL MAKE FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES,
WHILE KSAW AND KIWD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO FALL TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER. OTHERWISE,
VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE WITH THE SUNRISE, BUT NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2025
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GENERALLY REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SAVE FOR POSSIBLY SOME
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH/AROUND THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SHORTWAVES COULD BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHER THAN THE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE BEING SEEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE COULD SEE
THE FOG SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN NEARSHORES TONIGHT, UNCERTAINTY IS
STILL HIGH AT THIS TIME ON WHETHER THIS FOG EXPANSION WILL OCCUR OR
NOT. THUS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...TAP
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