751
FXUS63 KMQT 251735
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LOWER THE AIR QUALITY TO
UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS (ORANGE AQI) TO OCCASIONALLY
UNHEALTHY (RED AQI) THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY DEW POINTS PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE A ~10% CHANCE OF HEAT
INDICES OF 100+ IN THE INTERIOR WEST.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
UNDER A RAP-ANALYZED ~1017MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UP SAVE FOR SOME FAIR-WEATHER CU FIELDS. THE GRADUAL
WARMING TREND OBSERVED THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK AND AROUND THE 85
DEGREE MARK FOR SATURDAY. DESPITE STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE, THE
ATMOSPHERE STILL REFUSES TO DRY OUT WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
STILL BE AROUND 60 TODAY AND IN THE MID-60S TOMORROW, SO IT WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY MUGGY. NAEFS IVT CHARTS SHOW THAT THE GULF
CONNECTION IS INTERRUPTED AND THE SW MONSOON DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT
EITHER, SO WITH VAPOR TRANSPORT APPEARING TO COME FROM THE
DAKOTAS AND MN, THE LIKELY CULPRIT IS AGRICULTURAL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
WITH NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z SUNDAY, THE
MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER ELEMENT TODAY WILL BE CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE IS HELPING KEEP SMOKE FROM
EFFICIENTLY VENTILATING, SO AIR QUALITY REMAINS POOR AT TIMES.
METARS HAVE SHOWN OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY DROPS TO AS LOW AS 3 MILES
DUE TO THE HAZE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HEALTH RISKS AND
RESOURCES RELATED TO THE AIR QUALITY, REFER TO THE AIR QUALITY ALERT
WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EASTERN TONIGHT. RAP-SMOKE
SHOWS A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TREND IN NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND DISPERSION INCREASES
AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A TROUGHING PATTERN WEAKENING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, SOME SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK OVER THE U.P. THROUGH
MONDAY. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK NATURE OF THE IMPULSES, MOST OF THE
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE GETTING AT LEAST SOME HELP FROM DIURNAL
PROCESSES. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODELS DEPICTING 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS
BEING AROUND 30 KNOTS, THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY MARGINAL. NEVERTHELESS, WE DO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOME REMNANT CAPE IS PROJECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXPECT A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK BUILDING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BUILDS
RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE UPPER MIDWEST THE REST OF NEXT WEEK; EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP DOWN TO AS COOL AS 5C, CAUSING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, VFR IS THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE CASE OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE, WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT
SAW AND CMX. CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT FG FORMATION ARE ONLY 20 PERCENT
OR LESS AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
(ESPECIALLY VARIABLE AROUND THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON) BUT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH SOME 10 KT GUSTS
OUT OF THE SW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS DOMINATE THE REST OF THIS WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GENERALLY REMAINS
OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SAVE FOR A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE, AND A FEW MAY
BRING SEVERE WEATHER (5-14 PERCENT CHANCE) AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...GS/TAP
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