179
FXUS63 KMQT 120001
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
801 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POOR AIR QUALITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. SEE THE LATEST
AIR QUALITY ALERT, ISSUED BY MICHIGAN'S DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENT, GREAT LAKES, AND ENERGY FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.P ON TUESDAY.
- COOLER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING ABOVE-NORMAL TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WERE SCATTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
U.P WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND AREAS OF PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. HEAVY SHOWERS HAD MOVED OVER THE EASTERN U.P THIS MORNING
WITH UP TO 2.81 INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED EAST OF MANISTIQUE.
MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND EASTERN U.S WITH TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SMOKE COULD BE SEEN ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES OF 3
TO 6 MILES IN THE MOST DENSE AREAS OF SMOKE. THIS SMOKE WAS SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY EAST AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE U.P DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO
ONTARIO TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A WEAKER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE U.P. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST TOWARDS DAY-BREAK. ON TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE U.P FROM WEST TO EAST. DAYTIME
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORM AT
THIS TIME LOOKS TO INITIATE AROUND THE CENTRAL U.P DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY TRACK EAST. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. SPC HAS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.P IN A
MARGINAL RISK (5%) CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE EVENING
TUESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE
SMOKE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH NOON EASTERN TIME TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS A SECONDARY FRONT DIVES SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER FAIRLY QUITE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, EXPECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START RETURNING OVER THE WEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF
THE U.P ON FRIDAY. ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS PASS THROUGH CANADA AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AND PWATS UP TO
AROUND 2". MODELS SHOW AN EAST WEST ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER EITHER WI OR THE U.P. THERE COULD BE THE THREAT FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS
UP.
NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED, BUT ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY, IS MUCH TOO WARM OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND DOWNSLOPE
AREAS. CONSIDERING A NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY NOT EXPECTING DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND THUS HAVE KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS DO NOT BREAK 70 OVER THE NORTHERN
U.P. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES TO DROP INTO THE
40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. FIRST, CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL KEEP SMOKE IN THE FORECEAST TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT KEPT VISIBILITIES GENERALLY AROUND 6SM FOR NOW. AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, IT WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY
LINGERING SMOKE. HOWEVER, MVFR CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT WITH ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS. BEST FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR NEAR SAW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, DID CARRY A -TSRA MENTION IN THE
TUE 17-21Z TIME RANGE AT THAT SITE. MEANWHILE, WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE AN IMPACT AT CMX TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE, SUSTAINED AT 12 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS POINT, EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 25-30KTS WEST OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL WEST TO EAST MOVING SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE LAKE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ESTABLISH THEMSELVES
TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. THEY'LL
SHIFT TO EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
LARGELY FALL IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS AND STRONGER WINDS. HAZARDS WITH ANY OF
STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN AND POST-RAIN FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
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