614
FXUS63 KMQT 121100
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POOR AIR QUALITY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. SEE THE LATEST AIR QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY MICHIGAN'S
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, GREAT LAKES, AND ENERGY FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. TODAY.
- COOLER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING ABOVE-NORMAL TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING, EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE U.P. LATER TODAY
AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY COAST. WHILE
CONVECTION IS DYING AS IT HEADS INTO THE U.P. THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO RE-FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST AS DIURNAL
HEATING BECOMES MAXIMIZED AND INCREASES LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BEING AROUND 40 KNOTS, A
FEW STRONG STORMS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREATS (5% CHANCE FOR BOTH SEVERE WINDS AND SEVERE
HAIL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK). LOOKING AT THE
LATEST CAMS, STORMS LOOK TO START FIRING UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.P.
AROUND 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MODELS STARTS CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. THEREFORE, PEOPLE AT THE U.P. STATE FAIR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THE FORECAST AS SOME DAMAGING HAIL AND
WIND COULD BE SEEN WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS, NOT TO MENTION FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL; SHOULD STORMS FORM AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WE COULD SEE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN THE POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS DUE TO TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOK TO LEAVE THE U.P. BEFORE
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING SEEN BEHIND IT.
SOME HAZE AND POCKETS OF SMOKE COULD IMPACT THE U.P. THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THUS, THE AIR QUALITY ADVISORY ISSUED BY
MICHIGAN'S DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, GREAT LAKES, AND ENERGY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT THE AIR
QUALITY TO BE BETTER. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRRSMOKE MODEL
DOES SHOW ANOTHER BATCH OF SMOKE/HAZE POTENTIALLY ENTERING INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT (LEAVES WEDNESDAY).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS A SECONDARY FRONT DIVES SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER FAIRLY QUITE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, EXPECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO START RETURNING OVER THE WEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE 60S AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF
THE U.P ON FRIDAY. ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS PASS THROUGH CANADA AND WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLED NORTH FROM THE GULF WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AND PWATS UP TO
AROUND 2". MODELS SHOW AN EAST WEST ORIENTATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER EITHER WI OR THE U.P. THERE COULD BE THE THREAT FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS
UP.
NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED, BUT ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY, IS MUCH TOO WARM OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND DOWNSLOPE
AREAS. CONSIDERING A NORTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY, NOT EXPECTING
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND THUS HAVE KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS DO NOT BREAK
70 OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
SHORELINES TO DROP INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, SAVE FOR MAYBE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SAW THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY LOWER
CONDITIONS IN THE RAINFALL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY
OVER CMX TODAY, BUT OTHERWISE FLOW LOOKS TO WESTERLY ACROSS THE TAF
SITES BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST (OR CALMING DOWN) TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AT 20-30 KTS REMAINS WEST
OF THE KEWEENAW UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LAKE TODAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ESTABLISH THEMSELVES TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD
FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. THEY'LL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AND
THEN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LARGELY FALL IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER BOUNDARY MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS AND STRONGER WINDS. HAZARDS WITH ANY OF STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN AND POST-RAIN FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...JTP/TAP
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