454  
FXUS63 KMQT 122010  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
410 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- POOR AIR QUALITY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS  
MORNING. SEE THE LATEST AIR QUALITY ALERT ISSUED BY MICHIGAN'S  
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT, GREAT LAKES, AND ENERGY FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. TODAY.  
 
- COOLER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES  
REBOUNDING ABOVE-NORMAL TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK.  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
 
THIS AFTERNOON, SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWED  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THOUGH  
THE PLAINS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WAS TAKING ON A  
BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING  
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS IS WHERE THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE  
TROUGH WILL BE, KEEPING THE STRONGEST FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE  
U.P. THE INITIAL FRONT WAS PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND BREEZY  
CONDITIONS OVER THE KEWEENAW. THE FRONT WAS GENERATING SHOWERS  
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT DRY AIR IN  
THE MID LEVELS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WERE INHIBITING STRONGER  
THUNDERSTORMS THUS FAR. THE BETTER MOISTURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN  
U.P BUT CLOUD COVER FROM AN MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL WI INTO LOWER MI WAS INHIBITING SURFACE BASED  
INSTABILITY.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARDS. FEEL THE  
THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION (CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.P) IS DIMINISHING WITH  
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEST IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P BUT CLOUD COVER IS  
LIMITING CONVECTION SO FAR IN THAT AREA. STILL EXPECT THERE COULD BE  
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN  
THREAT.  
 
LATER THIS EVENING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
DIMINISH WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR  
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT  
KEEPING HIGHS TOMORROW ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. A PERIOD OF  
HAZE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT  
ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
 
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUITE. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE  
COMFORTABLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO  
THE 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THEREAFTER A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP. ON FRIDAY LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY  
LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL  
SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BUT TIMING AND  
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AN EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE  
A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE  
WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WPC HAS THE AREA UNDER  
A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS  
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD  
OF MVFR CIGS AS IT PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE U.P. MVFR  
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AND CMX MAY REMAIN VFR,  
FURTHER NORTH FROM THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SAW COULD SEE A  
THUNDERSTORM MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING  
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, KEPT THE MENTION AS A PROB30. VFR CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED  
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND  
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025  
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KTS OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE  
(MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE) THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL VEER WEST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, SETTLING TO  
AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS ACROSS THE LAKE FOR TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST. WINDS VEER  
NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY SETTLING BELOW 15 KTS INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THESE WINDS LIGHT THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THURSDAY  
NIGHT/FRIDAY MAY APPROACH 20 KTS. THE NEXT PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS  
INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
MIZ014.  
 
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...NL  
LONG TERM...NL  
AVIATION...NL  
MARINE...JABLONSKI  
 
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