881
FXUS63 KMQT 131100
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
ABOVE- NORMAL TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES HAVE BEEN REALIZED THIS MORNING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 50S IN THE INTERIOR BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. AS COOLER AIR FROM CANADA CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EXPECT THE
MAINLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE U.P. TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER, THE
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MODERATE SWIM RISK TO THE
BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY TODAY AS THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS AND SHORTER
WAVE PERIODS COULD TIRE OUT UNEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS QUICKLY, NOT TO
MENTION THE INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. IN
ADDITION, WE COULD SEE SOME HAZE IN THE SKY AS SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE
MOVES THROUGH DURING MAINLY THE MORNING HOURS (BUT HANGING OUT OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
HRRR_SMOKE RUN). BUT OUTSIDE OF THESE CONCERNS, TODAY LOOKS TO BE
QUIET WEATHER-WISE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE INTERIOR PROJECTED TO GET INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
AFTER ANOTHER CALM DAY ON THURSDAY, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP. ON FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND, BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AN
EAST-TO-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE
WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WPC HAS THE AREA UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AMONGST
THE DIFFERENT SUITES, WITH SOME BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BACK
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK TO OTHERS KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTER
OVERTOP US. REGARDLESS, THOUGH, IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS
ALL THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER, THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO POTENTIAL
EXCEPTIONS: THE FIRST BEING SOME HIGH-END MVFR CIGS OVER CMX THIS
MORNING TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
SOME LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
KEWEENAW NEAR CMX, GIVEN THAT THE MOST RECENT SCANS HAVE SHOWN THIS
DISSIPATING, DECIDED TO ONLY GO WITH A SCT025 FOR NOW. THE SECOND
EXCEPTION IS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FG OVER SAW LATE
TONIGHT; WHILE CONFIDENCE ON THIS FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF
RAIN EXPECTED TODAY, GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR ARE
PROJECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT (WHICH IS NEAR THE
DEWPOINT), I SEE FG BEING A GENUINE POSSIBILITY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE, CAPPED FG CONDITIONS AT LOW-END MVFR VIS FOR NOW,
ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE AIRPORT MINS BEING SEEN BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BECOMES MAXIMIZED OVER US CLOSE TO 12Z
THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS VEER MORE NORTHERLY TODAY,
GRADUALLY SETTLING BELOW 15 KTS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
THESE WINDS LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT SOUTHERLY
WINDS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MAY APPROACH 20 KTS. THE NEXT
PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE (AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES) RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...NL/TAP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...JABLONSKI/TAP
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