284
FXUS63 KMQT 131928
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
328 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ABOVE-
NORMAL TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST IS
KEEPING THINGS DRY AND QUIET FOR TODAY. IN SPITE OF A DRY AIRMASS,
VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS PLENTY OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CUMULUS ACROSS
THE UP. MEANWHILE, THOUGH DIFFICULT TO SEE ON SATELLITE, HAZY SKIES
AND NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE UP, THOUGH GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE THICKER SMOKE PLUME DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT NEARER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR, SOME SPOTS ARE STRUGGLING EVEN TO GET OUT OF THE 60S.
AS MENTIONED, SMOKE/HAZE ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING, WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE UP, AND THE 50S CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. AS WINDS
TURN LIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD WHILE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS, WE WILL BE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
IN A WARMER, MORE MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID AND
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP, WITH SOME OF THE
DOWNSLOPING SPOTS IN THE WESTERN UP POSSIBLY NEARING 80 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK NORTH INTO THE
AREA AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AN EAST-TO-WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE
WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WPC HAS THE AREA UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE DIVERGES AMONG VARIOUS MODEL SUITES,
BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEN, LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION ANY TIME FROM LATE MONDAY TO DAYTIME TUESDAY - IT REALLY
DEPENDS ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDLESS, THOUGH, IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES, AFTER CLIMBING
ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY, WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS THE UP THIS
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG MAY LEAD TO MVFR/IFR
FOG AT SAW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 15KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE WEST HALF ARE STAYING GENERALLY BELOW 15KTS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO FALL BACK TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF, THEN WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE SHIFT TO THE EAST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THESE WINDS LIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS. THE NEXT PERIOD OF ELEVATED
WINDS INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE (AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES)
RETURNS OVER THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...LC
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