316  
FXUS63 KMQT 141052  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
652 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WE BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES  
REBOUND TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE WEEK.  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BEGINS TO RECEDE  
LATER TODAY AS TROUGHING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT  
CHANGES THE WIND DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE U.P.,  
ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF TO INFILTRATE THE REGION.  
THUS, WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE WARMER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE  
MOST PART, ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPES ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR  
SHORELINE WHERE WE COULD SEE THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE THE LAKE  
MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE LIMITS TEMPERATURE INCREASES ONCE IT GETS GOING  
THIS AFTERNOON (EXPECT THE LOWER 70S FOR THE MOST PART).  
 
AS THE TROUGHING MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SNEAK THEIR WAY INTO  
THE WESTERN U.P. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS ALONG THE TROUGH  
TOWARDS THUNDER BAY AS IT WEAKENS. BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO  
WEAKEN WITH TIME AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS WELL, LEFT NBM  
SLIGHT (~20%) CHANCES IN THE FAR WESTERN U.P. FOR TONIGHT.  
OTHERWISE, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING WITH TIME  
TONIGHT, KEPT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON  
FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK NORTH INTO THE  
AREA AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT  
FOR SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT  
TIMING AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. AN EAST-TO-WEST  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION WHICH  
WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.  
 
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE  
WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WPC HAS THE AREA UNDER  
A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS  
TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY.  
 
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE DIVERGES AMONG VARIOUS MODEL SUITES,  
BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING  
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEN, LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS  
THE REGION ANY TIME FROM LATE MONDAY TO DAYTIME TUESDAY - IT REALLY  
DEPENDS ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
REGARDLESS, THOUGH, IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES, AFTER CLIMBING  
ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY, WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE PERIOD.  
HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE A LOW (~20% OR LESS) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
STORMS OVER IWD AND CMX THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH COULD  
LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS IF THEY DO OCCUR. IN ADDITION, WITH A  
WEAKENING LOW LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THUNDER BAY  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SOME PERIODS OF LLWS COULD (~50% CHANCE) BE  
SEEN OVER IWD AND CMX TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AT THE SFC TO GENERALLY  
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME OVER THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025  
 
GENERAL EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE  
TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SKIRTING THROUGH THE REGION,  
BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, INCREASING WINDS TO  
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE  
NORTH CENTRAL LAKE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOW (~30% OR LESS)  
CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR  
WESTERN LAKE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS  
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THUNDER BAY, WEAKENING AS IT DOES  
SO. BEHIND THAT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST  
COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LAKE, MAINLY CLOSER TO  
THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN  
ONTARIO. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE HIGH PUSHES INTO LAKE  
SUPERIOR LATE THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE  
NORTHEAST AND EAST TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING  
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE  
RIDGING PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE WINDS TO SLACKEN A LITTLE  
BIT; NEVERTHELESS, SOME EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS COULD STILL  
BE SEEN ACROSS THE LAKE.  
 
 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...TAP  
LONG TERM...LC/TAP  
AVIATION...TAP  
MARINE...LC/TAP  
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