170
FXUS63 KMQT 150023
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
823 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TURN WARM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK TO
NEAR/BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY EVENING
INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY; THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE UP IN A
SLIGHT (CATEGORY 2) RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER MN AHEAD OF DEEPER
TROUGHING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AT LOWER LEVELS, THIS
TRANSLATES TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF HUDSON BAY,
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO MANITOBA. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS WE
REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, QUIET AND DRY WEATHER
PERSISTS WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER THE CENTRAL UP.
TEMPERATURES ARE COMING IN JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
AS THE TROUGHING MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SNEAK THEIR WAY INTO
THE WESTERN U.P. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS
FROM MN TOWARDS THUNDER BAY AND WEAKENS. BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE SEEMS
TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS WELL, POPS REMAIN
LIMITED TO SLIGHT FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER INCREASING WITH TIME TONIGHT, LOWS TONIGHT RANGE IN THE
60S WITH JUST A COUPLE INTERIOR SPOTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A GULF CONNECTION WILL
BRING MUCH WARMER, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS RANGE IN THE 80S
- WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN NEAR 90 FOR SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPING SPOTS. EXPECT PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
THEN, CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN UP INTO THE
EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE, WITH POPS FINALLY SNEAKING
IN AS WELL DURING THE EVENING. WITH HOT, MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR (CAPE
UP TO 2000-3000J/KG), STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND AS MUCH AS 30-
40KTS OF BULK SHEAR TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS, ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE IN
DURING THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE. CAMS
ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THIS, WITH SOME SHOWING HARDLY
ANY CONVECTION AT ALL BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY AND OTHERS CONGEALING
SCATTERED STORMS INTO SOME KIND OF MCS/BOWING SEGMENT AS EARLY AS
21Z. IN ANY CASE, SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 20MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AN EAST-TO-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE AROUND OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE UP - WHERE EXACTLY DEPENDS ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. THIS,
ESPECIALLY IN COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF VORT MAXES/SHORTWAVES
RIPPLING THROUGH , SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND (PWATS APPROACH
2 INCHES), THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WPC
HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH RATHER
UNSTABLE AIR FRIDAY (AS MUCH AS 2000-3000J/KG OF CAPE), A HEALTHY 30-
40KTS OF BULK SHEAR, AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, ANY STORMS THAT
CAN SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN UP DURING THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE ABLE
TO TURN STRONG TO SEVERE. FOR THEIR PART, CAMS ARE IN QUITE A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT ON BOTH TIMING AND STORM MODE OF ANY CONVECTION FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH SOME FAVORING SOME KIND OF BOWING STRUCTURE WORKING IN
EVEN BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY, AND OTHERS SHOWING ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN UP. AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY, GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
US IN THE COOLER SECTOR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS LOW.
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, GUIDANCE DIVERGES AMONG VARIOUS MODEL SUITES,
BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER. THEN, WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION ANY
TIME FROM LATE MONDAY TO DAYTIME TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGARDLESS, THOUGH, IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES, AFTER CLIMBING
ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY, WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE A LOW (~20% OR LESS) CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER IWD AND CMX INTO TONIGHT, WHICH COULD
LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS IF THEY DO OCCUR. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY A
PROB30 AT IWD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR MENTION AT CMX. IN ADDITION, WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THUNDER BAY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SOME PERIODS OF LLWS COULD (~50% CHANCE) BE
SEEN OVER IWD AND CMX TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AT THE SFC TO GENERALLY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME OVER THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15-20KTS POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST REMAIN BELOW 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE VEERING SOUTHERLY. WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING UP TO 25 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL LAKE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOW (~30% OR
LESS) CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN LAKE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THUNDER BAY, WEAKENING AS IT DOES
SO. BEHIND THAT, ADDITIONAL WAVES BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR
ADVECTION KICKS OFF LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING; EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TO 20
TO 30 KNOTS, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE. AFTER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGING PASSES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO SLACKEN A LITTLE BIT; NEVERTHELESS, SOME
EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS COULD STILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...LC/TDUD
MARINE...LC
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