130
FXUS63 KMQT 151949
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO
THE WEEKEND. STORMS MAY PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY; THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE U.P. IN A
MARGINAL (CATEGORY 1) RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS HAS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO, INDUCING TROUGHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING TOWARDS HUDSON BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO FARGO. TWO AREAS
OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING OUT AHEAD OF THIS, THE FIRST IN NW IA AND
THE SECOND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND FAR NORTHWEST WI. HOWEVER,
IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THIS MORNING NORTHERN BATCH IS
WEAKENING. STILL, RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT WE COULD
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION REACHING THE WESTERN UP INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. AS WE HAVE DESTABILIZED QUITE NICELY (MLCAPE
ALREADY UP TO 1500J/KG) WITH MODEST BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KTS, IT WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THOUGH CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS EVENT, SOME ARE
SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TO MOVE AS FAR EASTWARD
AS M-95 BY SUNSET, EVEN GROWING UPSCALE INTO SOME KIND OF BOW-LIKE
MCS. AFTER THIS INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING, THE COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION, BUT AS WELL WILL BY THEN HAVE RUN OUT OF HELPFUL DAYTIME
INSTABILITY (OR SPENT IT ALL ON EARLIER STORMS), MORE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE COMING IN QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON,
PEAKING IN THE 80S FOR MOST EVERYONE AND EVEN TO NEAR 90 IN THE
TYPICALLY WARMER SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPING AREAS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN
UP AND NEARER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL BACK ONLY
AS FAR AS THE MID 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH/SOUTH OF
THE UP INTO SATURDAY, WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND HIGH PWAT AIR
(PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE!) BEING FORCED UP ALONG A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE SEEN IN SEVERAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ANY SPOTS THAT CAN RECEIVE ANY DECENT RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND THEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY WOULD BE AT RISK
FOR SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT WPC HAS PLACED US UNDER FOR SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION, WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TOO - MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UP, WHERE WE STAND A BETTER CHANCE AT
DESTABILIZING MORE SUCCESSFULLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS THE
SOUTHERN UP HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL OR THE ODD WIND GUST. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
DWINDLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE U.P. BEING DONE WITH THE RAINFALL BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING.
OVERALL, THIS COULD BE A GOOD SOAKING (1+ INCHES) EVENT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, HELPING TO ALLEVIATE GROWING DROUGHT CONCERNS. THE AREA
THAT HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE ON MISSING OUT ON MEANINGFUL RAINFALL,
THOUGH, IS THE KEWEENAW DUE TO THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
POTENTIALLY KEEPING MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH OF IT; SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, WE MAY BE LOOKING AT D0 CONDITIONS WHEN THE NEXT DROUGHT
MONITOR IS RELEASED NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL, OUTSIDE
OF THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING MID
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY AND LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO THE 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FINALLY PUSHES IN AND CLEARS
OUT THE SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ONTARIO SUPPORTS RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SUNDAY.
THEN, A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES, BUT LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. STILL, WITH WEAK WAA AND WEAK FORCING COURTESY
OF THE SHORTWAVE, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SNEAK BACK INTO THE
UP MONDAY, WRAPPING UP SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL NOTE
THAT DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG MODEL SUITES REGARDING THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THIS NEXT WAVE, AND THUS THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
ANY CONVECTION. AFTER TUESDAY, GUIDANCE FAVORS A PERIOD OF RIDGING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER PERSISTING AT
LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH.
OTHERWISE, IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES, AFTER CLIMBING ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY, WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT, A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED MIDWEEK ONWARDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
GENERALLY VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SITES TODAY, THE
EXCEPTION BEING CMX. THERE, ON AND OFF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED,
BUT CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE IN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA, LOCALLY LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR OR LOWER (RAINFALL
RATES PERMITTING). IN ADDITION, WE COULD SEE PATCHY FG DEVELOP OVER
THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AS WELL IF EITHER THE CONVECTION ENDS UP
FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED IN THE FORECAST (WHICH IS A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY) OR IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE SHOWERS/STORMS. MVFR
CEILINGS SETTLE IN AT IWD AND SAW FOR SATURDAY WHILE SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD, THOUGH CMX MAY STAY AT LOW-END VFR. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO FURTHER VIS AND
CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20KTS MAINLY
BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND THUNDER BAY THIS EVENING, THOUGH SOME ~20KT
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET.
MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WORKING INTO THE WESTERN ARM
OF THE LAKE, AND MAY CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THE
REST OF THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT WHILE SHIFTING
WINDS FIRST TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. WINDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 20-25KT GUSTS BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHER GUSTS AROUND AND IN EXCESS OF
30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE; AS OF THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING, ENSEMBLES SHOW A 20-30% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BEING SEEN OVER THE WESTERN ARM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SLACKEN SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK;
NEVERTHELESS, SOME EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS COULD STILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY, IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS LIGHTEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING FROM CANADA COMES BACK TO THE REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...LC
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