160
FXUS63 KMQT 301723
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
123 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF UPPER MICHIGAN, PARTICULARLY THE INTERIOR WEST.
- A CALM AND PLEASANT LABOR DAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE!
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS TO THE
EAST IS KEEPING THE REGION REGION DRY TODAY. UNDER THESE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, ADDITIONAL WARMING INTO THE MID
70S AND AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE ARE EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S BY THE
LAKES AND UPPER 40S INTERIOR WHERE PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP BY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AT THE SFC NEAR S ONTARIO/QUEBEC. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STRETCHING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY LIMITS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, BUT GRADUAL/WEAK SW FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. A
FEW DIURNAL -SHRA AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT (MAINLY
ON LABOR DAY OVER N-CENTRAL AND W), BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW GIVEN
LIMITED SHEAR AND INCONSISTENT INSTABILITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE.
CURRENT POPS ARE LESS THAN 20% FOR LABOR DAY. FOR THE MOST PART,
THIS PROVIDES PLEASANT WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY PERIOD.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUE. THIS TROUGH DIGS S OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO TUE AND TUE NIGHT,
SETTLING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED. FROM HERE, DIFFERENCES
IN POSITIONING AND PROPAGATION GROW INTO THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A FEW EMBEDDED WRAP AROUND SHORTWAVES TO
PASS OVER THE REGION AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD
QUEBEC FOR SUN. THIS SENDS A SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED, A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK, AND LIKELY ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PAIR ON
FRI. SHRA AND MAYBE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACCOMPANY THE FIRST COLD
FRONT ROUND LATE IN THE DAY TUE INTO WED, BUT INSTABILITY IS LOW (A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AT BEST). 850MB TEMPS QUICKLY FALL NEAR
0C FOR WED - THU, BRINGING BACK LAKE EFFECT -SHRA. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGS THE LAST HURRAH OF POPS IN
THE FCST BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND TO
GRADUALLY BRING BACK DRIER WEATHER. THIS COLDER PATTERN BRINGS TEMPS
BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. AN UPTICK IN N BECOMING W WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED IN
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTS IN THE KEWEENAW IN THE 20-30
MPH RANGE WED/THU.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECTING VFR TO CONTINUE AT KCMX/KIWD
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MAY RESULT IN
IFR VISIBILITIES AT KSAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS WINDS BELOW 20 KTS
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT AND SFC
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON TUE INCREASE S TO SW WINDS TO 10-
20 KTS DURING THE DAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE W
HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS QUICKLY VEER NW, INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS TUE
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SE ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD AIRMASS
OVERHEAD MIDWEEK CONTINUES N BECOMING W WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR GALES TO 35 KTS ARE AROUND 25-50%, HIGHEST
OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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