121
FXUS63 KMQT 042343
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
743 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
CLIPPER-LIKE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA.
- GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN GREEN BAY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, AND ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR STRONG WEST
WINDS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
- A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH SOME MODERATION EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN WI TONIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY, SO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAIN WILL IMPACT ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, STARTING THIS
EVENING AND TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE FAVORED WEST WIND
LAKE-EFFECT AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD EXCEED AN INCH IN SPOTS, AS
PROBABILITIES FOR 1+ INCH REMAIN AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AS STRONG
DYNAMICS COMBINES WITH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WIND WILL ALSO BE A BIG
FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ARRIVING IN EASTERN
SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER LATER TONIGHT, THEN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ALL LOCATIONS AS THE LOW DEPARTS FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS CONTINUE AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT IN FAVORED WEST TRAJECTORY AREAS.
WINDS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S ON FRIDAY AND IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
COMBINATION OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND LAKE-EFFECT IN FAVORED WEST TO
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HIGHLIGHT
OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FROST FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING TAF SITES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE NIGHT, EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT
ALL TAF SITES. LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY MVFR BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. IWD AND SAW COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS WITH THE WIND PRONE CMX REACHING 30 TO 35 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 447 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONG CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN WI AND THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER GREEN BAY
AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WEST
WINDS DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CAA DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY.
PROBABILISTIC DATA HAS BEEN KEYING IN ON THE GALE POTENTIAL FOR GREEN BAY,
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, BUT THINK THAT GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY
IN THE STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA REGIME. HAVE CONVERTED GALE WATCHES OVER
LAKE SUPERIO INTO WARNINGS FOR THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST
OF THE LAKE FALLING BELOW 20 KTS BY SATURDAY MORNING (THE EXCEPTION
BEING NEAR THE KEWEENAW WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL HOLD ON THROUGH
THE DAY). FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECTING THE
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER, BELOW 20 KNOTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/
FRIDAY FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...NL/TAP
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