500
FXUS63 KMQT 021851
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
251 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND LOW IMPACT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES TO THIS WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
COULD BE BROKEN ACROSS SEVERAL SPOTS THIS WEEKEND.
- WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY WEATHER MAY LEAD TO LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF US KEEPS FUNNELING WARM AIR FROM THE GULF
OVER US THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AIR BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON TO GET INTO THE 70S TO POTENTIALLY AROUND 80 IN THE
DOWNSLOPES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR LIKE L'ANSE/BARAGA AND ONTONAGON. THE
ONLY AREA OF THE U.P. THAT IS LOOKING TO STAY BELOW 70 IS THE EAST,
WHERE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TEMPER THE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PROJECTED TO BRING A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WHILE SOME SPOTS
MAY 'LUCK OUT' AND RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID FROM SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS (WE CAN THANK THIS ON THE HIGH PWAT AIR,
WITH THE NAEFS SHOWING PWATS UP TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES, ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR MODELED CLIMATOLOGY), WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE
BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT SEE
A WETTING (0.10-0.20+ INCH) RAINFALL, WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY
SEEING ONLY A TRACE IF EVEN THAT MUCH. BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, WE MAY HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WINDS PICK UP AND WE
CONTINUE TO WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA. ON A MORE POSITIVE NOTE,
THOUGH, IS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TILTING WITH HEIGHT FOR CELLS WILL BE TOO
LITTLE; GIVEN THAT MOST GUIDANCE ONLY BRINGS SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ONLY TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME 'POPCORN'
CONVECTION IS REALLY EXPECTED. ALSO, WHILE MOST OF THE AREA IS THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS, CAMS DO SEEM TO HINT AT THE CENTRAL U.P. SEEING
MORE SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO DIURNAL
HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE; THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL
U.P. MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME FIRE WEATHER RELIEF WITH THE EXTRA
PRECIPITATION.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO POTENTIALLY EVEN MID-
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE DOWNSLOPES ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR; DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SEVERAL PLACES IN UPPER
MICHIGAN TIE OR BREAK THEIR MAX HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD ON SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS
AND STARTS TO STRETCH OUT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES IN SPOTS, WE COULD SEE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, EVEN THOUGH RHS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO ONLY
DROP DOWN INTO THE MID-30 PERCENTS. WHILE WE MAY SEE A NEAR-REPEAT
ON SUNDAY, WITH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY, WE MAY
NOT SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES GET AS WARM; NEVERTHELESS, WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH HEAT AND EVEN WINDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BACK
ACROSS THE U.P.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER,
RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR AREA
BEFORE DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY
MORNING; IF THIS IS THE CASE, THEN WE COULD SEE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CYCLING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY SHOWING UP AROUND THE LATE TUESDAY
TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AS OF 18Z THU. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
AROUND 10 KT, GUSTING TO 20 KT AT A FEW SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TONIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR TSRA AT
KIWD AND KCMX BEGINNING 04-05Z FRI AND KSAW BEGINNING 09Z FRI.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 5-7 KT AT MOST SITES BY ~06Z FRI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE, EXPECT
THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AS A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKE SATURDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO
BEGIN PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN; AS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY, WE COULD SEE SOUTHERLY GALES TO
AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR (THE
LREF AND NBM BOTH SHOW CHANCES FOR GALES OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER AT
50 TO 70%); THE GALES LOOK TO BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DWINDLING TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. WE COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE STRONG ATMOSPHERIC SHEARING PROFILE BEING PREDICTED.
HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING INTO QUESTION
WHETHER THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR OR NOT. SOME GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH AND BRINGS COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR SOMETIME DURING MID NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...TAP
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