361
FXUS63 KMQT 031154
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
754 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY BEFORE WE DRY OUT AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES TO THIS WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE
BROKEN ACROSS SEVERAL SPOTS THIS WEEKEND.
- WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY WEATHER MAY LEAD TO LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UP AND LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO. IN SPITE OF
OUR RATHER MOIST AIRMASS, FEATURING PWATS UP TO 1.2 INCHES, WEAK
FORCING IS KEEPING MORNING CONVECTION SPOTTY AND LIGHT. WHERE
SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, GENERALLY A TRACE TO 0.10IN
OF RAINFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, IF WE CAN GET ANY BRIEF
DOWNPOURS IN STORMS, THEN HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 0.10-0.20IN WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SOME ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN A
WARM, MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UP. MUCAPE PEAKS AT SEVERAL HUNDRED TO 1000J/KG PER THE
HREF, BUT LIMITED SHEAR PRECLUDES ANY REAL CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION. WHERE WE CAN GET SOME POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS
TODAY, ADDITIONAL .10-0.25IN TOTALS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY QUITE WARM, PEAKING WELL INTO
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE WINDS COME IN
LIGHTER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO POTENTIALLY EVEN MID-
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE DOWNSLOPES ALONG
LAKE SUPERIOR; DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SEVERAL PLACES IN UPPER
MICHIGAN TIE OR BREAK THEIR MAX HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD ON SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS
AND STARTS TO STRETCH OUT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. WITH WINDS
POTENTIALLY GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES IN SPOTS, WE COULD SEE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, EVEN THOUGH RHS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO ONLY
DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40-PERCENTS WITH SOME LOWER VALUES IN THE
MID 30-PERCENTS POSSIBLE. WHILE WE MAY SEE A NEAR-REPEAT ON SUNDAY,
WITH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY, WE MAY NOT SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES GET AS WARM; NEVERTHELESS, WE COULD STILL SEE SOME
RECORD-TYING OR BREAKING HIGH HEAT AND EVEN WINDIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BACK ACROSS THE U.P.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER,
RECENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR AREA
BEFORE DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY
MORNING; IF THIS IS THE CASE, THEN WE COULD SEE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CYCLING INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY SHOWING UP AROUND THE LATE TUESDAY
TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AT
SAW IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. IN ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS, PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 20KTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, FALLING
BACK AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS SHIFT OVER TO THE NE BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN
LAKE SATURDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN. THEN, AS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT
THE WINDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE.
AS THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY, WE
COULD SEE SOUTHERLY GALES TO AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR (ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS CHANCES FOR GALES
OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER AT 40 TO 70%); THE GALES LOOK TO BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DWINDLING TO 20
KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES
BACK OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE PASSING FRONT,
THOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH AND BRINGS COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR SOMETIME DURING MID NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
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