832
FXUS63 KMQT 041713
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
113 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES TO THIS WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE
BROKEN ACROSS SEVERAL SPOTS THIS WEEKEND.
- WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY WEATHER MAY LEAD TO LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD MIDLEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. SPLIT FLOW IS SEEN OFF
TO THE WEST, WITH LOWER-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING INTO
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A DEEPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTIONS INCLUDE BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A TIGHTER SURFACE LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES. CLOSER TO HOME, WE REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH
FINGERS OF FOG ARE BECOMING MORE APPARENT ON NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
RGB WHILE AVAILABLE ASOS SHOWS OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY BELOW
A MILE WHERE FOG IS DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
MILD, ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD, EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE MORE
NORTHERLY TROUGH BY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN TURN EJECTS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES TODAY, DEEPENING WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT
THE WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION, GUSTING UP TO
30+ MPH AT TIMES TODAY AND POTENTIALLY EVEN OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES ON
SUNDAY. WHILE MIN RHS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30%, GIVEN THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THE STRONG
WINDS, AND THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS LARGE
PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THIS WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT
HIGHS TODAY TO SOAR INTO THE 80S, WITH SOME OF THE DOWNSLOPES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR LIKE ONTONAGON POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 90(!) DEGREES
FOR A HIGH. WHILE TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS WARM ON SUNDAY, HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE STILL EXPECTED.
EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO
TRACKS THROUGH THE UP LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY. WHILE THERE IS A LOW
(~20-40%) CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE U.P. ON MONDAY. THUS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING RAINFALL LOOKS TO HAPPEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF ON MONDAY WHEN
THE COLD FRONT IS LEAVING THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT TO CALM DOWN RATHER FAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. IN
ADDITION, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE NORMAL BY
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
(WARMEST IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST). THE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA COULD BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE U.P. COME LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE LOW, I'M BEGINNING
TO THINK THAT WE MAY JUST SEE NOTHING MORE THAN STRONGER WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE
AREA TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ABOVE THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN LLWS TO 55 KNOTS. LLWS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING
BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO, GETTING UP TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS BY THIS EVENING AND INCREASING TO 25 TO A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE KEWEENAW, NEAR ISLE ROYALE, AND
THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS. AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE CHANCES
FOR LOW-END (35 KNOT) GALES OR GREATER ARE AROUND 50 TO 80%, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN OPEN LAKE. IN ADDITION
TO THE WINDS, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOW (~20%) AT THIS
TIME. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE WHERE CHANCES INCREASE
TO AROUND 50% AS SOME DIURNAL HEATING COULD HELP CONVECTION DEVELOP
MONDAY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, BECOMING
GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING BRINGS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS BACK OVER THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162-242>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...LC
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