746
FXUS63 KMQT 051730
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS 15- 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAX HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN ACROSS SEVERAL SPOTS THIS WEEKEND.
-BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH A FEW SPOTS
POTENTIALLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH AT TIMES.
- WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY WEATHER MAY LEAD TO MARGINALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MORNING RAP ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDLEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR
IN PLACE, WHILE BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH THE DEEP SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, THE GREAT LAKES
REMAIN UNDER ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS IS KEEPING THINGS BREEZY
TONIGHT, THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART WIND GUSTS ARE HOVERING IN THE 20-
30MPH RANGE. STILL, WITH WINDS AT 925MB ANALYZED AT AROUND 40KTS,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE DO SEE OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM,
STILL HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AND ONLY PROJECTED TO
FALL BACK A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT.
DRY, SUNNY, AND BREEZY WEATHER PERSISTS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. THOUGH
HIGHS SHOULD COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 14C, WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN DANGER ONCE MORE. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35MPH WILL BE COMMON, BUT SOME HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 40-45MPH WILL NOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER-END GUSTS, WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND HEADLINE
AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S COULD RESULT IN SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST, BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO BE MET AT THIS TIME.
THIS EVENING, THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARDS HUDSON BAY, WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE UP THROUGH
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN UP CLOSER TO
SUNSET, TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UP THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
CERTAINLY ISN'T LOOKING TO BE A WASHOUT, BUT MOST OF THE UP IS
LOOKING TO PICK UP SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10IN, WITH ANY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN HIGHER TOTALS TO NEAR A QUARTER INCH. GIVEN
STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME MORE
IMPRESSIVE GUSTS IN ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT MUCAPE ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PRECLUDES ANY REAL CONCERNS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTION.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AND WINDS TO DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH MORE FALL LIKE PATTERN TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOW 60S. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS AND A PASSING TROUGH REMAINS FARTHER
TO THE NORTH, KEEPING 850 MB TEMPS UP IN THE 0-5 C RANGE FOR THE
MOST PART. THUS EXPECT MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST -
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING POINT IN THE INTERIOR UP. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TICK UPWARDS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME
MVFR CIGS COULD BE SEEN BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AT SAW
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CMX AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BREEZY S WINDS WILL TURN W/NW LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES BEFORE DWINDLING DOWN LATER MONDAY
MORNING. SOME LLWS COULD BE SEEN AROUND THE TIME THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER CMX AND SAW AS IT WILL
BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND MIXING TO THE SFC MAY NOT BE AS
EFFICIENT; HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, EXPECT THE WINDS ALOFT TO
BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SFC, ELIMINATING THE LLWS THREAT. IN ADDITION
TO THE WINDS, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE SEEN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH CHANCES AREN'T THAT LIKELY FOR MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS/VIS FROM THE CONVECTION (I'M GUESSING AROUND A 25%
CHANCE OR LESS).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30MPH REMAIN COMMON THIS MORNING WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES COURTESY OF DEEP LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. SOME GALE-
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES THIS MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN GALES INCREASES LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT HEADS
TOWARDS THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE KEWEENAW, NEAR
ISLE ROYALE, AND THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS. CHANCES FOR LOW-END (35
KNOT) GALES OR GREATER REMAIN AROUND 50 TO 80%, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN OPEN LAKE. THE PASSING COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, BECOMING
GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COULD ALLOW WINDS TO PICK UP TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW AND ISLE ROYALE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LAKE SOMETIME TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING BRINGS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS BACK OVER THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-
242>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...LC
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