217
FXUS63 KMQT 062352
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK; A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. FROST AND/OR
FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RECENT WARM WEATHER WAS NOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
STREAM NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WEST BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED. THERE WAS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BUT
DRY AIR AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS KEPT THE CONVECTION SHALLOW
AND PRECIP FREE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MUCH CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES, MAINLY IN THE 50S.
FOR TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
PROVIDING LIFT FOR AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT COULD
BE HARD FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.P BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS THERE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER
THE EAST.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FROST TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH CLEARING
SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM GOING CALM AND DECOUPLING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY MAINTAINED THE
NBM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT.
THROUGH MIDWEEK THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR THE INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE CENTRAL AND WEST. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KEWEENAW
AND FAR EAST. NBM MINT PROBABILITIES FOR <32 ARE UP TO 100% OVER
THE INLAND AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND WEST AND AROUND 50% IN THE
EAST. MOST LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE U.P LATE
THIS WEEK, SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHORTWAVES TO
AFFECT THE AREA, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
CARRY A TEMPO FOR RAIN SHOWERS AT SAW THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT, INCREASING FURTHER TOMORROW MORNING IN THE WAKE OF COLD
FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD/SAW AND UP TO 35
KTS AT CMX AFTER TUE 15Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
WEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25 KTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
A FEW GUSTS TO GALE ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER PLATFORMS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT, BELOW 20 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, POSSIBLY UP TO
30 KTS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ002-004>006-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...NL
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