361  
FXUS63 KMQT 071851  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
251 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A WIDESPREAD FREEZE/FROST IS EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. A  
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.  
 
- FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT PUSHED PUSHED THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P THIS MORNING AND  
WAS NOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.P. A FEW LIGHT  
SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE FRONT BUT NO APPRECIABLE  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE U.P THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFTED TO  
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WERE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW.  
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 50S IN THE WEST AND LOW TO MID 60S IN THE  
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.  
 
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS HOW COLD IT WILL  
GET AND COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS. A SECONDARY COLD  
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE U.P THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER  
SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND  
-2C RESULTING IN 850MB-LAKE DELTATS OF -15C OR SO. CLOUDS WILL  
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND DEEPENING INVERSION HEIGHTS  
TO AROUND 7KFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. SUB-  
CLOUD DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY,  
HOWEVER, A CONVERGENT WIND PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE  
SHOULD HELP FOCUS A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY EAST OF  
MARQUETTE. WHILE THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NOT  
IMPACTFUL, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
WESTERN U.P AS WELL. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THESE CLOUDS WELL  
INLAND, THROUGH THE INTERIOR OF THE U.P BUT FEEL THIS IS A BIT  
OVERDONE AND EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR  
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET OVER THE INTERIOR WITH OTHERWISE OPTIMAL  
CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. KEPT THE TEMPERATURE  
FORECAST IN-LINE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS AND LEFT THE FROST/FREEZE  
HEADLINES IN PLACE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY. DEEP MIXING AND A DRY  
AIRMASS WILL BRING RH OVER THE INTERIOR DOWN AS LOW AS 30% BUT WINDS  
SHOULD BE LIGHT, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL  
COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE U.P AS WINDS BECOME CALM OVER MUCH OF THE  
AREA AND A COOL, DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD EXPAND  
FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE  
AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.P AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. USED THE  
25TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, BRINGING MANY AREAS  
AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S.  
 
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE U.P LATE THIS WEEK INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A  
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR  
PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE  
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND BREAK DOWN WITH THE  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS  
REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10-15 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE  
COLD FRONT NOW PROGRESSING OVER THE EASTERN UP. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED  
UP TO 30 KTS AT CMX AND AROUND 20 KTS AT SAW UNTIL SUNSET WHEN WINDS  
SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH. AT THAT POINT, A COLDER AIRMASS  
PASSES OVERHEAD AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER RETURNS. BEST COVERAGE  
WILL BE AT SAW WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD BE SEEN AND PERIODS OF  
HIGH-END MVFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT (15-25% CHANCE). CMX MAY SEE  
BROKEN SKIES AT TIMES, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE,  
ESPECIALLY GIVEN VFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE  
EXPECTED AT IWD. SKIES SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERS OVERHEAD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE  
AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS  
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KTS OVER THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND UP TO 30  
KTS LAKE WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY, GENERALLY BELOW 15 KTS.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY  
FOR MIZ001-003-006-007-014-085.  
 
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 10 AM  
EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.  
 
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...NL  
AVIATION...77  
MARINE...NL  
 
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