355  
FXUS63 KMQT 081702  
AFDMQT  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI  
102 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR  
INLAND AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN.  
 
- PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN,  
SAVE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS PRESSING SOUTHEAST  
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO THE ASSOCIATED FAVORED LOCATIONS  
OF THE KEWEENAW AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. LIGHT RADAR  
RETURNS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCASIONALLY BE  
REACHING THE GROUND, INCLUDING HERE AT NWS MARQUETTE, WHICH OBSERVED  
0.01 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 1 AND 2AM EDT. THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN  
WREAKING HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE, OUR OFFICE WAS  
OBSERVING 34 DEGREES AND THEN WARMED TO 41 VERY QUICKLY AS A SHOWER  
MOVED OVERHEAD. THIS SAME TREND IS BEING OBSERVED ELSEWHERE, WHERE  
CLOUD COVER IS HINDERING SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR RESULTING IN WARMING  
AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR HAVE ALLOWED OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AND 30S INTERIOR CENTRAL.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD, OFF AND ON LAKE EFFECT  
SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN  
AND THE KEWEENAW. THESE CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT  
COOLING NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKESHORES, BUT INTERIOR LOCATIONS  
SHOULD CONTINUE COOLING. WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S OR LOW 30S ARE ON  
TRACK FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. THOSE MODERATED BY THE  
GREAT LAKES OR CLOUD COVER MAY ONLY DIP INTO THE LOW 40S.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY AND THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING  
INCHES EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH TRANSITS  
UPPER MICHIGAN. LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN THE DAYS WILL  
RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND, WITH TODAY PEAKING IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 50S FOR MOST AND THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TONIGHT THE  
TRANSITING HIGH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS, PLENTY OF  
SUBSIDENCE, AND THE DRY AIRMASS, PROVIDING ANOTHER NIGHT OF  
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER  
MAY MOVE OVER THE EAST, BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE  
TRANSITING HIGH. OPTED TO FOLLOW THE THEME IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST  
PACKAGE, BRINGING WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS  
REMOVED FROM THE LAKESHORES. 30S STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOST  
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES TOO. SINCE WE CURRENTLY HAVE FREEZE WARNINGS  
AND FROST ADVISORIES OUT, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FREEZE/FROST  
HEADLINES IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY AS  
WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS, POTENTIALLY HIGHER  
IN DOWNSLOPE PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKESHORE.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT, A SHARP SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. AS IT REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR  
AND UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
EASTERN LAKESHORES FOLLOWED BY THE PAIR CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL A WEAK  
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE  
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER  
ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND  
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN THE EAST.  
 
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AFTERWARDS, STRETCHING ATOP THE  
DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND SPANNING MUCH OF MIDDLE CONUS. THE  
DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN  
ATLANTIC, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW HOVERING ALONG THE  
EAST COAST INTO NEXT WEEK. UPSTREAM, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE RIDGE'S WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
VFR CONTINUES AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT  
SHOWERS PRESS EAST OF SAW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF ITO THE  
EVENING. WINDS BECOME CALM TONIGHT BEFORE SOUTHERLY GUSTS 15-25 KTS  
RAMP UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
WINDS ARE COMING DOWN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, BUT AT THE TIME OF THIS  
WRITING, A HANDFUL OF NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WIND OBSERVATIONS  
ARE STILL OCCURING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, SPECIFICALLY STDM4  
BLOWING ~25KTS AND THE JAMES R. BARKER OBSERVED 19KTS AT 6Z NORTHEAST  
OF THE STDM4. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE REGION TODAY, WINDS  
SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHTENING, LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 20KTS THROUGH  
TONIGHT. THURSDAY, AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL PRESS CLOSER TO THE  
REGION AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT  
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR  
25KTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE REGION,  
THESE WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30KTS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LOW END GALES, NAMELY THE GFS AND EC. THE LATTER'S  
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SUGGESTS ~30% FOR GALES ACROSS PARTS OF  
WESTERN AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, WHICH IS AN UPWARD TREND. WILL  
NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR CONSISTENCY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER  
THIS SYSTEM EXITS FRIDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLIES  
AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BEGINS STALLING AND INTERACTING WITH A  
POTENTIAL TROPICAL OFF THE EAST COAST, AND ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST. DURING THIS PERIOD, PRIMARILY WINDS BELOW 20KTS  
SHOULD PREVAIL. BY SUNDAY, THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE  
REGION, RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLIES INCREASING TO NEAR 25-30KTS.  
THESE ELEVATED WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
UPPER MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
LAKE SUPERIOR...  
NONE.  
LAKE MICHIGAN...  
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JTP  
AVIATION...BW  
MARINE...JTP  
 
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