453
FXUS63 KMQT 240002
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
802 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LATE
TODAY (WEST HALF) AND LATE FRIDAY (EAST HALF).
- COOL TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY TREND ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
AS DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE OVERHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED STREAMING
DOWNWIND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING THANKS TO A COOL AIRMASS
ATOP WARM LAKE SUPERIOR AND A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
SHOWER AND CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN COMMON IN THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST
WIND SNOWBELT REGIONS AND A DIURNAL COMPONENT ALLOWED SOME SHOWERS
TO STRETCH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS ALSO LIMITED TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE WEST HALF BY THIS
EVENING AS THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH'S INFLUENCE DECREASES AS IT MIGRATES
EAST INTO QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO SHOWERS IN THE
EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. PERIODIC SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS AND GOGEBIC RANGE.
SIGNIFICANT OR IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THOUGH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT IN THESE LOCATIONS WHILE
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TRENDS MOSTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP
INTO THE 20S FOR INTERIOR AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER BREAKS BUT ONLY
FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S OTHERWISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO GROW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR
THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 40S
FRIDAY THEN 50S, MAYBE LOW 60S ON SUNDAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. PERIODS
OF CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY SATURDAY THANKS TO A WEAK
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY, THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WHILE A WAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THIS RIDGE REMAINING TRANSIENT INTO TUESDAY,
SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT ALLOWS THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH TO STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.
IT MAY ALSO ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES MID-WEEK. WHERE ALL THESE FEATURES
LINE UP THOUGH VARIES GREATLY NOT ONLY IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE,
BUT IN ENSEMBLE SURFACE LOW CLUSTERING AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE
LREF, WHICH ALL REPRESENT MULTIPLE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. GIVEN THESE
LARGE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF RAIN NEXT WEEK IS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
CURRENTLY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
INCREASING CHANCES (40-60%) TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODIC DROPS
TO MVFR CONDITIONS INTO MID-MORNING TOMORROW WITH SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS STILL IN THE AREA. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT CMX AND SAW INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 12 TO 15 KT RANGE AND SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE
WEST HALF OBSERVING NEAR OR BELOW 20KTS. THE EAST HALF THOUGH HAS
EXPERIENCED 20-30 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGH REPORTING
PLATFORMS SUCH AS STDM4 AND GISM4 NEAR OR LOW END GALES. THE CULPRIT
BEHIND THIS IS A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE COOLER AIR LOCKED WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT, AN
APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE NORTH, AND THE HIGHER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGING. AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH, WINDS ACROSS THE EAST WILL DECREASE
THANKS INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
BELOW 20KTS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO NEAR 25KTS LATE SUNDAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WHEN THE REGION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE 1034MB HIGH IN
QUEBEC AND A DEEPENING 995MB SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THE
PLAINS INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THE SAME WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY, BUT COULD CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE
DECREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH ALLOWS ANOTHER WAVE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS AND A RETROGRADING LOW THE OPPORTUNITY TO
PRESS WEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A TREND TOWARD THIS
GENERAL CONCEPT, GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO WHERE
THE SUBSEQUENT SURFACE FEATURES END UP. SHOULD THE UPSTREAM OR
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH/LOW MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OR UPPER MIDWEST, A
WIND INCREASE SHOULD BE EXPECTED TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. IF THE RIDGE
HOLDS OVERHEAD THOUGH, FORCING STRONGER GRADIENT FORCES TO DEVELOP
AND DRIFT ELSEWHERE, MORE LIGHT WINDS MAY BE REALIZED. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
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