575
FXUS63 KMQT 241726
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
126 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST HALF.
- COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WARM ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLE OVERHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
LINGERING NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EAST HALF
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DIMINISHES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH CENTRAL UP EARLY
THIS MORNING; SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD QPF
AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS BY THE END OF THE DAY, BUT AROUND
0.20-0.40" IS ANTICIPATED OVER WESTERN ALGER COUNTY WHERE THE MOST
FREQUENT SHOWER COVERAGE IS DUE TO FAVORABLE WINDS AND FETCH OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 40S. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT COLDER TEMPS
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE UP IN THE 20S FOR THE INTERIOR
AND LOW TO MID 30S AT THE LAKESHORES. THAT SAID, THIS LIKELY (75%
CHANCE) WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE UP AS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OVER WISCONSIN AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL YIELD INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, PREVENTING
IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING PROCESSES. PRECIP, IF ANY, WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AT THE
SURFACE. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE BUILDS UPSTREAM OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS RIDGE MOVES TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND,
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ON SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 50S FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SETTLE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS RIDGE GIVES WAY ON MONDAY,
BECOMING A CLOSED HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WHILE BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. DRY
WEATHER HOLDS ON MONDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY GROWS INTO NEXT WEEK AS
POPS SLOWLY RETURN. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S.
OPTED TO LEAVE THE NBM AS IS TUESDAY ONWARD AS MODELS ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN PROGRESSION. LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MID LEVEL WAVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
U.S. ON TUESDAY RETROGRADING SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WHILE ANOTHER WAVE
DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, IT
IS UNCLEAR HOW LONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT ALL
OF THIS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER RIDGE QUICKLY SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, SHIFTING EAST TO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AT LEAST LOOKS TO HOLD OFF MOST PRECIP UNTIL MIDWEEK BEFORE
THE BREAK DOWN ALLOWS FOR POPS TO RETURN, POSSIBLY AS LAKE EFFECT
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BEFORE ANY SYNOPTIC PRECIP ARRIVES. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT SAW INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING FULLY VFR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WITH
INCOMING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
FIND THEIR WAY OVERHEAD SAW INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULDN'T BE MUCH
MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF
AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY AND IMPACT. MEANWHILE, TO THE
WEST AT IWD AND CMX, SATELLITE TRENDS SO CLEARING CLOUDS SAVE FOR
SOME LINGERING VFR CU. THERE, VFR CONTINUES WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS SHIFTING OVERHEAD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
NORTHWEST 15-25 KT WINDS THIS MORNING SETTLE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON, FURTHER LOWERING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS BY TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN KEEPS WINDS MAINLY
15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON
SUNDAY, REACHING 15-25 KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE STRONGEST ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE AS LAKE SUPERIOR BECOMES
STRADDLED BETWEEN A NORTHWARD LIFTING ~995MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A 1034MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THE SAME WIND REGIME
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, BUT COULD CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN PROGRESSION MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK, LEAVING FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL LOW AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KTS ARE AROUND 20-
40% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING ON FRIDAY TO BETWEEN 25-50%
ACROSS THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...77
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