981
FXUS63 KMQT 241915
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
315 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS ENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY FOCUSED EAST OF MARQUETTE INTO ALGER COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE PRODUCED ONLY MEAGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY, WITH NO SITE
REPORTING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR. SHOWERS WILL
FINALLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CENTERED OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT OF CHILLY TEMPS, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S NEAR
THE LAKES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE INTERIOR. A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT IMPACTS FROM THIS FEATURE TO BE
MOSTLY LIMITED TO JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE U.P. AS ANY PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY, YIELDING DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP ABOVE FREEZING ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO JUMP SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS INTO THE LOW 50S ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY INTO THE
30S INLAND AND PERHAPS THE LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARD TO EXACTLY HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS UPPER MICHIGAN
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO THE
NORTH OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LARGELY DERIVES FROM THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT SLOWLY RETROGRADES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND HOW THAT
FEATURE INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
CAN REASONABLY EXPECT AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK AS INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN WITH TEMPS SETTLING BACK CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
WITH A BROAD BRUSHED, NBM HEAVY APPROACH IN THE LONG TERM GIVEN
THE LACK OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IN TIMING AND
POSITION OF THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT SAW INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING FULLY VFR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WITH
INCOMING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
FIND THEIR WAY OVERHEAD SAW INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULDN'T BE MUCH
MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF
AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY AND IMPACT. MEANWHILE, TO THE
WEST AT IWD AND CMX, SATELLITE TRENDS SO CLEARING CLOUDS SAVE FOR
SOME LINGERING VFR CU. THERE, VFR CONTINUES WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS SHIFTING OVERHEAD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND IS REPLACED BY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. REMOVED THE REMAINING
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR THE EASTERN NEARSHORES A FEW HOURS EARLY
AS LATEST OBS SHOW WAVES SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT IN MOST LOCATIONS.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE AND NEAR THE KEWEENAW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRENGTHENING HIGH
OVER QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT LATEST PROBS
GENERALLY DEPICT A 20-40% CHANCE FOR WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT FOR
TUESDAY ONWARD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB
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