664
FXUS63 KMQT 251719
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
119 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OVER WISCONSIN WITH WIDESPREAD TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN CANADA. RAP ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1026 MB
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS MOVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST TRACKING TOWARD TEXAS; TROUGHING IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE
TO THE UP, THE RADAR IS FAIRLY QUIET AND THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY AS MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DRIFT OVERHEAD.
TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL HOLD IN THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR, UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND 30S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO ~1030 MB TODAY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD JUST WEST OF THE UP
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. AS A RESULT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION,
850MB TEMPS RISE TO ~1-2C AND SURFACE TEMPS WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES; CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 40S, COLDEST INTERIOR CENTRAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO WARM
TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND SIMILAR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS UNDER THE RIDGING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HOLDS THROUGH
MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED HIGH FORMS OVER ONTARIO AND THE
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS/CANADIAN PRAIRIE BEGINS TO DIG
INTO THE PLAINS.
FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AS MODEL
GUIDANCE UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE RESOLVING THE PATTERN
PROGRESSION. A DOWNSTREAM WAVE/CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY MAY RETROGRADE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE, PINCHING
THE CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC/ONTARIO. THIS FURTHER IS
COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID/LOWER-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A RESULTING SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH THEN
WOULD LIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT ALSO COULD BE INFLUENCED BY
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA. THIS FIRST SOLUTION IS A VERY
CONVOLUTED PATTERN FOR MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OUTSIDE LOW (15-25% CHANCE) POTENTIAL FOR TRANSIENT LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT POPS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT (QPF STRUGGLING TO REACH A FEW
HUNDRETHS). THE OTHER OPTION IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
PRESENTED IN THE GFS: A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, PUSHING EVERYTHING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA AND
SUPPORTING REINFORCED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LONGER DRY PATTERN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT EVEN EACH INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE IS SPLIT ON THE SOLUTION, BUT LESS THAN HALF OF THE MEMBERS
(~40% OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE) SUPPORT THE DRIER SOLUTION. ALL THIS TO
SAY: IMPACTFUL WEATHER LIKELY (75% CHANCE) WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND OR EVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
WITH A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
TURN LIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS TO SAW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20% CHANCE). IF FOG CAN
DEVELOP, IT MIXES OUT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES THE REST
OF THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LARGELY KEEPS SOUTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY (15-30% CHANCE) OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
LAKE. THOSE CHANCES INCREASE TO 25-50% FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS BACK EAST BY WEDNESDAY,
SETTLING BELOW 20 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES MID TO LATE
WEEK, BUT LATEST PROBABILITIES GENERALLY DEPICT A 20-40% CHANCE FOR
WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PROBABILITIES
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...77
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