589
FXUS63 KMQT 260710
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
310 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL
WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD WHICH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER NEW ENGLAND/QUEBEC. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES HAS KEPT SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS, EXPECT MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURFACE
RIDGING STILL EXTENDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP OVER QUEBEC. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTS
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY
AND MONDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S. AS THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH DEEPENS MONDAY, SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT DRY AIRMASS
PRESENT OVER THE UP, SO CHANCES ARE LOW (15-25% CHANCE) FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING INTO THE UP AS THESE FEATURES GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. IF ANY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
REALIZED, THEY WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR WEST AND NEAR WISCONSIN.
BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE NOW
CLOSED HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA, THE WESTERN TROUGH GETS PINCHED OFF
INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT DESCENDS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THAT TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS SHOULD REINFORCE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DROPS OFF AFTER THAT AS MODELS TRACK OUT ANOTHER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE LATE THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER FACTOR IN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TAKES THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. GIVEN ALL THIS, OPTED NOT TO STRAY FROM THE NBM AS SYNOPTIC
PRECIP IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REINFORCED HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT (~15-20% CHANCE). POPS INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE LOW LIFTS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUPPORTING SOME SYSTEM
PRECIP OR SHORTWAVES FROM THE NORTHWEST PROMOTE COLDER FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTING LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE TEMPS GRADUALLY
APPROACH NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT COULD BE ADDED WITH
FUTURE TAF UPDATES. BUT, THIS IS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE. IF FOG DOES
DEVELOP, IT WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE WITH SUNNY SKIES THE REST OF
TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LARGELY KEEPS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE LAKE BEFORE SETTLING BACK BELOW 20 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE
FOR MONDAY MORNING. WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY, INCREASING TO 20-
25 KTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY; STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERNATIONAL BORDER WATERS WHERE
A 15-30% CHANCE OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS RESIDES. WINDS SETTLE BELOW 20
KTS TUESDAY NIGHT, BACKING EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY 15 KT WINDS OR
LOWER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...77
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