374
FXUS63 KMQT 272330
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN NEAR
NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS IN MICHIGAN'S UPPER PENINSULA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR UPWARDS TO JAMES BAY
AND ~1033MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS BACK FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC SW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CLOSER TO HOME, EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
HAVE SETTLED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AMIDST BREEZY S TO SE
FLOW. TONIGHT, TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) AROUND
AND JUST AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL UP, AS SEEN THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH FREEZING FOG ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT TAKE CAUTION TRAVELING THROUGH AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MEANDERS NE HAVING BEEN
PINCHED OFF BY A TROUGH DESCENDING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND A WEAK
RETROGRADING VORT LOBE OVERHEAD NEW ENGLAND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THIS DESCENDING PLAIN TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO SNEAK EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW, BUT WILL BE STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS BY
THE FORCEFIELD MADE UP OF ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUEBEC HOLDING ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, THIS TROUGH DIPS SOUTH BEFORE CLOSING OFF IN SOUTHERN
APPALACHIA. THOUGH 850MB TEMPS MAY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS MIDWEEK PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THURSDAY,
THE DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO PHASE
WITH A WEAK IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SWING NORTH, SENDING A
DEEPENING SFC LOW THROUGH THE WESTERN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND INTO THE
LOWER LAKES BY EARLIER FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW TRACK SHOULD KEEP
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE CWA, HOWEVER, REINFORCED
COLD 850MB TEMPS ROUGHLY -2 TO -5C SHOULD UPTICK LAKE EFFECT POPS
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND EVEN MORE SO INTO SATURDAY AS MID-
LEVEL TEMPS POTENTIALLY FALL AS LOW AS -6 TO -9C WITH THE HELP OF A
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES PRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. CANT RULE OUT
SNOW/GRAUPEL MIXING IN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. AT THIS
TIME, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH IF COLDER SOLUTIONS AND
MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE REALIZED, COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST CONTINUED MIDWEST/EASTERN US TROUGHING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. THE DRY CONDITIONS
AND WEAK WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FOG THREAT TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD MAINLY 20 KTS OR LESS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
THIRD OF THE LAKE. WINDS BECOME 15-25 KTS LAKEWIDE TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WATERS WHERE THERE IS A 25-50% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. 15-25 KT WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ON
TOMORROW, THEN GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 20 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
OUT OF THE EAST. MAINLY 15 KT WINDS OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...BW/77
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