101
FXUS63 KMQT 281630
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1230 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN NEAR
NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THE U.P REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE DOMINANT
OVER THE U.P OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND LOW
30S OVER SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P WHERE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAD DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR CALM WINDS. NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN AND DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER THE WEST TEMPERATURES WERE
WARMER, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. THERE WERE A FEW
AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW AND
PARTS OF DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES.
QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN A
SPLIT FLOW, DIRECTING STORM SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MIXING WINDS COULD GUST
UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY THE BLOCKING HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND RETROGRADES WESTWARDS AND MERGES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THEREAFTER A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO NEW ENGLAND
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL BE PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY THOUGH THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR IN THE INTENSITY OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REGARDLESS, EXPECT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY. THE NBM HAS PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH LESS THAN IDEAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE PROFILES FOR ICE DEVELOPMENT/GROWTH,
SATURATED ONLY TO -9C. THIS COULD RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
INSTEAD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. SHOULD WE MANAGE TO SEE SNOW
THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE LOW 50S ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND TO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY SATURDAY THOUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS CLOSER TO WHERE WE SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST CONTINUED MIDWEST/EASTERN US TROUGHING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD HANG AROUND FOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME FG DEVELOP OVER SAW AND IWD LATE TONIGHT, BUT
GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME (LESS THAN 10%) IT
WASN'T MENTIONED IN THE TAF; IT'S A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT SOME
MVFR CIGS HIT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING (AROUND 20% CHANCE).
GENERALLY, EXPECT SE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LAKE SUPERIOR IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WITH WINDS TO 25 KTS. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RESULTING IN A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KTS. A PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, LESS THAN
10 KTS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH WINDS TO 30 KTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND FALL BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...NL
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