028
FXUS63 KMQT 290735
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WITH AN UPPER LOW
RETROGRADING WESTWARDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, RESEMBLING A
REX BLOCK. THIS WAS HELPING TO KEEP THE U.P DRY WITH A SPLIT JET
TAKING SHORTWAVES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUED THOUGH WIND WERE LIGHTER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AREAS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND OVER THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF THE KEWEENAW WHERE THERE WAS ONSHORE FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WERE PUSHING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE U.P AND OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE KEWEENAW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY,
MAINLY THE LOW 50S, WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
WIND WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING OVER THE AREA
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC SHIFTS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE RIDGE WILL HOLD OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY
SQUEEZING AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE
LATTER DEEPENS AND LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE
OTHER WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH WISCONSIN. THIS PROGRESSION WILL MOVE
US FROM THE CURRENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS INTO SOMETHING MORE AKIN TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THEIR TRADITIONAL
BELTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP AND 850MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -6C. THE LIMITING FACTOR
TO NOTABLE QPF IS THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE THOUGH SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE A PERIOD OF SEEDER-FEEDER POTENTIAL FRIDAY. DRY MID LEVEL AIR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD LIMIT ICE NUCLEATION AND THUS KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING OVERHEAD. FROM THERE, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
TROUGHING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER
AIR OVERHEAD AND BRING THE REGION MORE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
AGAIN COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG FORMATION OR CIGS AT SAW AND IWD EARLY
THIS MORNING. BUT, WITH LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE, WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION AND WILL ADDRESS IN FUTURE UPDATES IF NEEDED.
MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
THIS MORNING AND REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 25-30
KTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK WEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO 25-30KTS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30KTS AFTERWARDS. ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A 20-60% CHANCE FOR GALES.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTP/NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP/NL
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