023
FXUS63 KMQT 291829
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
229 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
MOVING THROUGH LAKE ERIE/LOWER MICHIGAN, A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT UPSTREAM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO
MINNESOTA. WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING IN PLACE THIS MORING, DAYTIME
HEATING WITH THE SUNRISE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SLOWLY ERODE MORNING FOG
WHILE TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 40S.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, RIDGING OVER THE REGION
WILL SLOWLY BREAKDOWN WHILE THE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO OUR
SOUTH CONSOLIDATE, RESULTING IN AN AMPLIFYING SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST, PULLING A SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW EVENTUALLY DROPS
BELOW 970MB AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM, THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO
WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL THEN SLOWLY DESCEND INTO THE LOWER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS KEEN ON THIS RIDGE ERODING AS THE
NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION
IS HIGH GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.
THIS PATTERN PROGRESSION WILL MOVE US FROM THE CURRENT STRETCH OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO SOMETHING MORE
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY NOVEMBER. TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT FOG
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH DENSE PATCHES BEING POSSIBLE (25-50% PER
HREF FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR WEST HALF). AFTERWARDS, THE PATTERN
SHIFT WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN AND GRAUPEL/SNOW SHOWERS SETTING UP IN THEIR TRADITIONAL BELTS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -6C. SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHEN A BULK OF THE COOLING ALOFT OCCURS.
LATEST NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY SUGGESTS
0.01-0.15 INCHES OF QPF IN THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
TRADITIONAL SNOWBELT REGIONS WITH UPWARDS OF 0.30 INCHES PER NBM
90TH. DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL SEEDER-
FEEDER WHICH WOULD YIELD ADDITIONAL QPF, BUT THE SAME SOUNDINGS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER IN THE MID-LEVELS, WHICH WOULD MAKE HIGHER QPF
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING
OVERHEAD. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE MONDAY WILL YIELD BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A SWATH OF TRANSIENT RAIN AND BREEZY WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO IMPACT UPPER MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND NEAR-
IDENTICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT, THINKING THAT IWD WILL SEE FG
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SAW COULD SEE SOME FG
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOO. WHILE IWD'S FG CHANCES ARE AROUND 50%
ACCORDING TO LAMP GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT THE SITE SAW BELOW AIRPORT
MINS LAST NIGHT, I THINK THE CHANCE OF AIRPORT MINS OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE IWD TONIGHT ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN WHAT THE LAMP
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING. AS FOR SAW THOUGH, GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE
OF THE FG LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING, I'M A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT
IN CONSISTENT FG CHANCES OVER THERE (AROUND 50%). FG IS NOT EXPECTED
AT CMX TONIGHT (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE), BUT THERE MAY BE A PATCH OR
TWO THAT LOWERS CIG/VIS DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME
(30% CHANCE). EXPECT A NEAR-REPEAT OF THIS MORNING THURSDAY MORNING
TOO; WITH CIGS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY BEING MVFR, SAVE FOR
POTENTIALLY NEAR AIRPORT MINS BY IWD UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, GUIDANCE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY GIVES ME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
PROGRESSION. OVERALL, LIGHT WINDS THAT HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY AND WILL DO SO UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT,
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
WHILE EXTENDING A SURFACE THROUGH BACK WEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SINCE YESTERDAY, A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A DEEPER DIVE HAS 925MB WINDS IN THE
GFS AND EC IN THE 40-50KT RANGE WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AT
850MB. SOUTHWESTERLY GALE PROBABILITIES WITHIN THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS PING ~50-60% CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT MID-LEVEL
WARMING IN THIS PERIOD WON'T CLIMB ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE, SUSPECT THESE VALUES ARE REALISTIC DESPITE THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANGES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST PROVIDING
ANOTHER GALE OPPORTUNITY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO INTO
TUESDAY THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE LAKE. LIKE WITH THE EARLIER PERIOD, A TREND UPWARDS HAS
BEEN NOTED IN DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, ALTHOUGH THIS ONE IS LOWER.
ENSEMBLES GUIDANCE HAVE INCREASED AS WELL, NOW SUGGESTING ~40-70%
CHANCE FOR GALES.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...JTP
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