763
FXUS63 KMQT 141757
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1257 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WRAPS-UP TODAY.
- SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE TONIGHT.
- A BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD BE SEEN OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND EAST HALF OF THE U.P. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THE EAST FOR THIS
COULD BE FORTHCOMING.
- TEMPERATURES START CLIMBING EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH ABOVE
FREEZING HIGHS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
- MULTIPLE GALE EVENTS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
WEEK.
- A STRONG CLIPPER LOW COULD BRING HIGH WINDS AND A FLASH FREEZE
SETUP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS IMPACTS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
ONE LAST BURST OF NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS BEING FELT
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE DYING LOW RESPONSIBLE NEAR THE MOUTH
OF THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY THIS MORNING ALLOWS RIDGING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE IN OVER US. THIS RIDGING WILL PUSH THE LAKE
EFFECT AWAY FROM THE U.P. FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY, WITH THE LAST OF THE LES (LAKE EFFECT SNOW) ENDING OVER THE
FAR EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS, STILL SEEING SOME
STRONG LES BANDS OVER THE EAST VIA OUR RADAR AS OF THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING, WITH DBZS BETWEEN 20-30 WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THUS,
AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM AND INCREASE TIME IN THE DGZ ALOFT
(INCREASING SLRS CLOSER TO 20:1, MEANING THE SNOWFALL IS BECOMING
FLUFFIER), WE ARE SEEING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING (SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES). THUS, THE EAST COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW BEFORE THINGS START TO
DRAMATICALLY RAMP DOWN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW ARE ALSO STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING TOO,
ESPECIALLY ALONG M-28 WEST OF MUNISING TO THE MARQUETTE COUNTY LINE.
HOWEVER, AS THE WINDS DROP TODAY, EXPECT THE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS
TO GO AWAY BY THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING HOURS AS WELL THANKS TO THE
RIDGING BUILDING IN.
WHILE THE RIDGING MOVING IN BY THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BRING SOME
SUNNIER SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P., DON'T EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
STAY AWAY ALL THAT LONG AS A CLIPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
TONIGHT IN COMPARISON TO EARLY THIS MORNING, WE CAN STILL EXPECT THE
LOWS TO BE IN THE SINGLE POSITIVE DIGITS, WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER'S
ARRIVAL. AS THE CLIPPER DIVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT,
SOME MODEST Q-DIVERGENCE AND STRONG WARM FRONTOGENESIS COULD LEAD TO
A QUICK-HITTING 1-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.P. BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH SNOWFALL RATES GETTING TO
AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR IN THIS FRONTOGENETIC BAND, I WOULD HAVE
ALREADY ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALGER, SCHOOLCRAFT, AND
LUCE COUNTIES IF THERE WASN'T THE CURRENT ONE ALREADY GOING UNTIL
LATE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, I WILL LET THE DAYSHIFT BE THE ONES TO
ISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, PROVIDED THE GOING FORECAST
DOES NOT CHANGE. CAMS HIGHLIGHT THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL ENDING BY THE
MID-MORNING HOURS OVER THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE REX BLOCK THAT WAS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST NOW UNDERWAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE FROM WELL BELOW
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN NOW AND THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BY
THE TIME THE CLIPPER PASSES BY US MONDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA AS LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, EXPECT SOME OF THE WARMEST AIR WE'VE SEEN IN WEEKS
TO BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. WHILE SOME WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD CREATE SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW FLURRIES IN SPOTS OVER THE KEWEENAW
AND EAST TUESDAY, NOTHING IS REALLY EXPECTED IMPACT-WISE AS PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO A TRACE (IF EVEN THAT) AS THE BETTER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED IN CANADA. THAT
BEING SAID, WE COULD SEE SOME MELTING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD BRING THE SOUTH-WIND DOWNSLOPES
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. AS THE COLD FRONT
OF THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WE
COULD HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS MIX TO THE SFC, POTENTIALLY EVEN UP TO
40 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW (60% CHANCE). WHILE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THEM TO END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RIDGING
RACES BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS A CLIPPER LOW THAT'S EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE UPPER PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE DEEPENING
CLIPPER LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ARRIVING AT OR NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY, STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STRONG
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE POLAR AIR WRAPPED BEHIND THE CLIPPER.
WHILE WE MAY SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN,
AND/OR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THINKING THE
MAIN PRECIP-TYPE WILL BE LIGHT RAINFALL THURSDAY ALONG THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, AS THE POLAR AIR BEHIND THE LOW BRINGS LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST, WE MAY SEE A FLASH FREEZE SETUP AS THE RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT
FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MOVE FROM ABOVE FREEZING AIR TO WELL BELOW
FREEZING AIR (AGAIN, THINK OF GOING FROM MID-30S TO MID-TEENS IN A 6
HOUR PERIOD!). THUS, WHILE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
AREN'T PROJECTED TO BE TOO MUCH (PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OVER THE
NORTH WIND SNOW BELTS), THERE MAY BE SOME ICE THAT DEVELOPS RAPIDLY
OVER THE U.P.'S ROADWAYS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH SOME SNOW MIXED WITHIN THE ICE (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
LAKE SUPERIOR). IN ADDITION TO THE ICING CONCERNS THURSDAY IS ALSO
THE WIND THREAT; WITH THE LOW BEING AROUND 986MB BY THE TIME IT
MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY, THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION COULD ALLOW STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM BEHIND THE
LOW WHIPS-UP NORTHWEST WINDS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE (UP TO AROUND A
40% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM). THESE STRONG WINDS, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANY ICING THAT OCCURS, COULD BRING SOME POWER
OUTAGES AND MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION TO THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FORECAST ON THIS ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AS THE
SITUATION STILL REMAINS FLUID AT THIS TIME.
THE RIDGE AND CLIPPER COMBO CONTINUES INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK,
MORE BAROCLINIC FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME AS THIS
PATTERN IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. IF IT COMES TO FRUITION THOUGH,
WE CAN EXPECT SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION,
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL, OVER US FROM TIME-TO-TIME AS WE
APPROACH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE BRINING IFR CONDITIONS
TO KSAW WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW KSAW TO TREND
TO VFR AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, ANOTHER
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN, BRINGING SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS. KCMX/KSAW ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
SNOW WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO CMX EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KSAW
WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
LAKE AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING DIE
DOWN LATE THIS MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY;
WINDS DIE DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE BY
THIS EARLY EVENING AS THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE LAKE.
HOWEVER, IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE, ANOTHER CLIPPER
LOW APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL, WITH SOUTHWEST
GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF, ALTHOUGH SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING); IN ADDITION TO THE GALES, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON
MONDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME, BECOMING
NORTHWEST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY, EXPECT
THE WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING,
POTENTIALLY HAVING GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS (30% CHANCE). AS THE COLD FRONT OF THE CLIPPER
MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD GALE UP TO 40 KNOTS ONCE MORE, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE (40 TO 50%
CHANCE); SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY MAY ALSO RETURN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND A
STRONG CLIPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRAVERSING LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE
LAKE-WIDE AHEAD OF THE LOW'S ARRIVAL (UP TO 30% CHANCE IN THE WEST
AND 40% CHANCE IN THE EAST). AS THE STRONG TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LOW CROSSES THE LAKE THURSDAY, THE
ARCTIC AIR WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW COULD ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST
STORM FORCE WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING (UP TO 25% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE NBM);
SHOULD THIS BE REALIZED, ALSO EXPECT A RETURN OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ACROSS THE LAKE. AS A STOUT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, WE CAN EXPECT THE WINDS TO RETURN BACK
DOWN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LMZ221.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TAP
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