377
FXUS63 KMQT 150528
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1228 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND EAST HALF OF THE U.P. LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES.
- SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES START CLIMBING EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH ABOVE
FREEZING HIGHS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
- MULTIPLE GALE EVENTS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
WEEK.
- A STRONG CLIPPER LOW COULD BRING HIGH WINDS AND A FLASH FREEZE
SETUP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST AS IMPACTS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE FORECAST IS AN ACTIVE PERIOD INCLUDING A MULTITUDE OF MID LEVEL
WAVES, INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND VIGOR, AS THEY TRAVERSE THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEK. THE PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS ALLOWS BETTER PERIODS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SUPPORT
PRECIP, BUT ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS RETURNING
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS ON TUESDAY/THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS COMING
WEEKEND, TEMPS HOVER AROUND NORMAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LEAVES
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AROUND THE HOLIDAY
TIMEFRAME, BUT WITH LESSER IMPACTS AND MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/TRACK. STARTING THIS AFTERNOON, GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HAS MADE IT TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
1040 MB OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS EXTENDING RIDGING
UP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS ALREADY DETERIORATED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, BUT WILL ALSO BACK WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING. THIS ENDS LINGERING LIGHT LES SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST BY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS.
THIS INBETWEEN PERIOD WON'T LAST LONG AS A SUBTLE WAVE CURRENTLY
ATOP THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUPPORT A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GIVES WAY INTO MONDAY WITH BRIEF WEAK TRAILING
LES. A QUICK PASSING F-GEN MAX OVER THE CENTRAL MAY SUPPORT HIGHER
AMOUNTS INTO THE 2-4 INCH RANGE ON THE COLD SIDE (EASTERN UP), BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT AS AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE
AND IS SHORT LIVED. PARTICULAR FOCUS IS ON KEWEENAW, ALGER, AND
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A 25% CHANCE FOR +3 INCHES AND
LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR +4 INCHES. WHILE THIS WILL BE A QUICK
BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH POSSIBLE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1 MILE (50-75% CHANCE), OPTED NOT TO HOIST ANY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. ADDITIONAL LES AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OVER
THE KEWEENAW AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPS SETTLE TONIGHT
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO LOW TEENS, WARMING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO 20S ON MONDAY. A BRIEF RIDGE PASSES OVER MONDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, ENDING LES AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS MAINLY
HOLD IN THE TEENS, HITTING THEIR LOWS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. STRONG
WAA BRINGS BACK WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH SOME LOW 40S IN
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, BECOMING BREEZY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHERE GUSTS IN TO THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. A
WARM FRONT AND TRAILING ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PROVIDE MARGINAL LIFT
TO PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE IN THE DAY, BUT ONCE
AGAIN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. BETTER POPS (20-40%)
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
TRACK THROUGH. THIS COOLER PERIOD INTRODUCES LES BACK INTO THE
WINTRY MIX. ALL MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT LOOK
MARGINAL, IF AT ALL. ALSO COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WITH THE
PASSING COLD FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES, PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR (30-60% CHANCE). EXPECT PRECIP TO END BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS RIDGING RETURNS. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THIS DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE OF
THE FORECAST ARRIVES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GREAT LAKES BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SENDING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AT THIS POINT, SO
VARYING LEVELS OF IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN STORY IS THAT WAA
INITIALLY WARMS TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE 30S LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS ALONGSIDE ISENTROPIC ASCENT KICKS OFF A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH ON THURSDAY, A COLD AIRMASS QUICKLY SLAMS IN FROM THE WEST,
TRANSITIONING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS IS A GOOD
SET UP FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS MODELS INDICATE 15-20F CHANGES IN 6
HOURS OR LESS WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
MID TEENS, COLDEST INTERIOR WEST. THE COMBINATION OF ANY SNOWMELT
AND PRIOR RAIN TO THIS COLD FRONT LIKELY WOULD CREATE HAZARDOUS
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SHOULD THIS PAN OUT. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING LES WILL
DEPEND ON THE SYSTEM TRACK. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING, THIS COULD SPEED UP THE P-TYPE TRANSITION PERIOD, OR
MOSTLY CIRCUMVENT IT ALTOGETHER LIKE THE 12Z GFS. THIS UNCERTAINTY
IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE LATEST NBM PERCENTILES. THE 75TH PERCENTILE
HAS 4-8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS WHILE THE 25TH
STRUGGLES TO REACH 1 INCH. WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS THE WINDS
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/PRESSURE RISES ON THE
BACK SIDE WITH STRONG CAA SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS,
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE (20-40%). THESE STRONG WINDS, IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ANY ICING THAT OCCURS, COULD BRING SOME POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR
LAKESHORE FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT UPPER MICHIGAN TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CIGS TO TREND
DOWNWARD BACK TOWARDS MVFR 08-12Z AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10-
15 KT. LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO KCMX AND KSAW WHILE GUIDANCE ONLY
DEPICTS AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AT KIWD. SNOW ALONG
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL BRING VARIABLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO KCMX AT TIMES ON MON. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS CONDITIONS TREND BACK TOWARDS
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 418 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT TO 20-30 KTS
ACROSS THE LAKE WITH GALES TO 35 KTS EXPECTED OVER THE WEST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY,
GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW 20 KTS FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.
A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE LAKE ON TUESDAY, ONCE
AGAIN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING TO 20-30 KTS
LAKEWIDE, FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO GALES OF 35-45 KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON (20-40% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 40 KTS), STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE WEST. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES THROUGH, WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO 35-45 KTS NOW OVER THE
EAST (30-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 40 KTS). WINDS WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN TO
20 KTS OR LESS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER RIDGE QUICKLY
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A GALE WATCH IS LIKELY NEEDED WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE IF CONFIDENCE AND TIMING CERTAINTY INCREASE.
THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE FORECAST OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
TRACK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS
BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES FOR GALES IN THE FORECAST WITH 50-75%
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 35 KTS DURING THE EVENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO 20-30 KTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DURING THIS PERIOD THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF
GALES TO 40 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH, A
STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND WINDS QUICKLY
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH INTO THURSDAY NIGHT; CHANCES FOR 40+ KT
GALES INCREASE LAKEWIDE TO 40-70%. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STORM
TRACKS WILL IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS, BUT LATEST
PROBABILITIES OF STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AT 15-30% OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY,
BRIEFLY RETURNING WINDS TO AROUND 15-25 KTS, BUT THIS QUICKLY IS
REPLACED WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH MORE 20-30 KT WINDS AND GALE POTENTIAL. THAT SAID, THERE IS
PLENTY OF TIMING AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY
THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162-
263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ221.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...77
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